So that’s gone “exactly” as suggested yesterday, as the U.S Dollar blast higher against the EUR , GBP and CHF. Gold gets completely wacked ( 24 dollars down as of this moment ) and U.S equities “almost” look like they are finally gonna run out of gas.
I am knee deep in profits across the board.
This move should have some legs ( as noted yesterday – the US Dollar should really take a ride here coming out of such a significant bottom ) and it “almost” looks like the old school correlation of USD up = U.S equities down / risk off and a flight to safety may be in play.
Can you believe that the largest contributing factor ( in my view ) is fallout of public sentiment on Obama and this absolute catastrophe called Obama Care?
I dug into it last night to get a better understanding of what exactly the implications are….and it could very well be Obama’s “final undoing” considering what Americans are now faced with respect to their health care planning.
I really can’t see any kind of short-term fix, as the website is one thing fine…..but the fact that thousands of Americans “current and existing health plans” are now being cancelled as per the new laws?? By law??
I thought the idea of drones flying in American skies was starting to look a little “dictatorial”, and now this??
I need to hear from Americans currently living IN AMERICA……I have to know….what do you guys think?
What can be done?
Seriously, I’d encourage anyone there in America to comment as it’s difficult for me to really get my head wrapped around this. How is this affecting you and your families?
A family of three I know is looking at a 400 dollar per month increase starting on Jan 1. My personal rate is going up a little more than 30%. I don’t see any short term solution either. I’d think this is bearish for stocks but I don’t really believe that. It seems nothing can stop the stock market these days.
Yes …taking thw wind out of the stock market is no easy task.
Do you guys know if there are any kinds of actual “protests”? or are people more or less just accepting it for what it is?
I’ve not heard of any protests in my little corner of the USA. I think opposition to Ocare will increase in 2014. Whether that takes the form of protests or something else… I don’t know. It will have a meaningful negative impact on the economy next year.
Kong! My employer is a Fortune 500 company and they provide a very good health care package for myself and my dependent (my wife). I am rapidly approaching retirement age, at which point we will be handed off to Medicare which I’m sure will become problematic at some point given the fiscal issues facing that program. The US is still a great nation, but we constantly need to remind ourselves that human beings will generally take the course of least resistance when given the opportunity – so ‘let the government take care of the problem’ becomes a preferred solution for too many; and as Nikita Kruschev said, “Politicians are the same everywhere, they promise a bridge even where there is no river.”
I’m in the US and have lots of friends in various financial situations from high school educated laborers to surgeons.
I can say with very little exception that most Americans have “lost the will to think”. They haven’t quite lost the will to live, completely, but they’ve recognized that things are moving against them in all ways, and it’s coming from the tippy top.
After a traumatizing 8 years with GW Bush, the country rallied vigorously for Obama, who has turned out to be worse and more sinister than Bush in almost all possible ways. He carries a charming smile while escalating drone strikes, making a mockery of the US constitution, ravaging our global reputation through spying, and cuddling up to bankers and big business by massive currency inflation. His most “humanitarian” policy, Obamacare, has his few remaining supporters stunned. $300M for a website that doesn’t work… This is such a caricature of government corruption and incompetency that it’s now looped from terrifying to funny and back again.
The answer is that the US is an occupied country. How did the French feel from 1940-1944? What about the Poles? They weren’t in charge of anything. It’s scary because things are getting worse. Everything is uncertain and people don’t walk around with a spring in their step anymore.
In the US, there are no ways left for an American to control his destiny in a positive way. Any promotions at work will be offset by inflation, any savings will be lost to inflation, any victorious elections will be tainted by corruption. We’re speechless here, and fully without passionate opinion. What do Americans talk about now? Not politics. They talk about football, the latest microbrew, and the most recent movie or tv show, because everything else is too depressing.
And how am I treated when I try to discuss these very serious issues with my friends and family? About the same way my bitcoin suggestions have gone on this forum, for about the same reasons. It’s a pain in the neck to think about, so I’m generally ignored, and occasionally made the butt of jokes.
Cheers – Galt out.
John, I agree with everything you said but I’ll add my two cents. I’m 56 and the country has changed a lot in that period. The technology that has been developed is amazing and will keep developing so life in some ways will continue to improve. On the other hand, human nature will always be what it is. The corruption in our politics right now is disturbing but liars and cheats do what they do. Ultimately it’s the American people who have lost their way and elect these type of politicians that won’t tell them what they don’t want to here. The average American knows something is going wrong but will never see that they’re part of the problem. Obama care will probably be a disaster but I only see it as one more to add to the list. Unfortunately, I think we’ve now reached a point where are country will no longer be rising but falling. Also, who will follow Obama? Another Clinton? Wow!
Hey Seeker – thank so much for the input.
You’ve touched on something that I keep running into – “when are the people of American going to actually stand up and say / do something??”
I can only speak of Canada ( and even at that – not really ) but I do know one thing for sure. If something like this ever happened in Canada it would literally take 24 hours minimum before every single news channel / magazine / newspaper / union / government watchdog / voice of the people type organization etc… would have this thing shoved so far back up the Governments a%#SS that……
Well…..there is no way in hell people would just sit idle and accept this / let it play out.
I just can’t understand what its going to take for Americans ( who are obviously proud, resourceful , hard working people ) to stand up and scsream at the top of their lungs.
Good points, Seeker.
The US is now falling and not rising. That graph is unlikely to change, exacerbated by globalization and an overall lack of political interest in long term domestic investment. Debt payments won’t help either.
Corruption and human nature certainly are constants, but critical mass and power do create trend shifts. The rift between rich and poor, between citizen and corporation is too great now, and I think that power will continue to consolidate at the top vs periods in time where it is more distributed onto an educated citizenry.
Kong – in terms of why American’s don’t protest or re-elect better officials? A couple years ago, the Supreme Court of the US overruled a decades old law that prevented corporations from funding political campaigns. Now, corporations are allowed to inject limitless funds into political campaigns, as long as they go through a 3rd party organization, not a candidate. This allows for every election to be a well calculated marketing campaign. In addition to this, our news media has dumbed things down and centralized points so well, that the people are led astray. It’s come down to a marketing campaign. One might ask why Coca-Cola continues to sell tons of product, despite a simple fruit juice being so much healthier and tastier. Same thing, I think.
Canada rocks! Cheers to Vancouver, BC for leading the charge with the world’s first bitcoin ATM and $10k in volume transacted in the first day. (Yes, I believe that Bitcoin is the backlash to World 1.0 and will lead us into World 2.0)
Ya I read the news online!
Vancouver setting the standard and really hitting the street with Bitcoin!
I’m still reading and researching. You’ll see the ol “wallet” up n running here soon, as I feel as well that support of Bitcoin is certainly for those “looking forward”.
also from a poster at another site.
I have been watching this Obamcare thing with utter amazement. Overall I agree with most who think this is an accident waiting for a disaster. Even the Obama press is seeing what could happen and positioning themselves for a potential disaster. One thing that is being under-reported about this is actually very simple. What I am about to say is not meant as a political statement……Obamacare is nothing more than an attempt at the LARGEST TRANSFER OF WEALTH EVER MEASURED IN THE US. If you don’t believe this go on valuepenguin.com (a very helpful site to guage state by state options for Obamacare), put in the state of Florida, an age in and a few incomes ranging from $12,000 to $24,000 (income within the “poverty” level) and you will see what I mean. You can get a Platinum (great health care plan…$750 deductable and $2500 total out of pocket limits) plan for about $150 per month while the government pays for the other 66% of it. If you go to a Bronze plan (lowest) you almost get it for FREE in that income bracket! Guess who is in that income bracket? If you make less than $12,000 you get thrown into state medicaid.
Bottom line……the middle class will get totally screwed on this as well as anyone over 27 years old who has an income above around $22,000. Meanwhile the folks below $22,000 will be fully covered with some type of plan (whatever level they choos or Medicaud through their state).
Absolutely true, Kevin. And how best to stave off a violent revolution? Give cheap food to the masses.
Oh, the middle class? Yeah, sorry guys. There just aren’t enough of you to matter. You’ll be squeezed out now. As have the middle classes in civilizations for thousands of years. Look at every ancient civilization and every “developing” country on the planets. Tiny upper class, huge lower class, nothing in the middle.
The savvy will leap to gold, silver and bitcoin and the rest will be enslaved.
Kong…..I think the main reason for the dollar spiking today was the big increase in the Chicago PMI….now there’s talk that taper is back on the table before the end of the year. Everyone forgets that the Fed’s main mandates are inflation and unemployment and one or two good economic numbers aren’t going to turn the tide. As far as Obamacare goes, he’s waffling and putting a spin on things just like he did with the Benghazi and Mexican gun running scandels. He’s very good at tiring out the media with his constant bullshit until they go on to other things. But I don’t know if he’ll get out of this one. I’m on Medicare so right now it’s not affecting me. All the people having their insurance policies cancelled is due to the government claiming they don’t meet the new standards of Obamcare.Sure, from what I read, the Obama administration purposely wrote the law this way so the millions who had their policies cancelled would be forced into Obamacare and in turn support the older people who use considerably more services. I’ve heard some people on the news claim that the Obamacare insurance includes things like maternity care, psychiatric care, etc…..things many people don’t need or want but it’s part of the governments “take it all and shut up” medical plan. I’ve also read that Medicare Advantage policies (which I have) are going to be defunded 6-8% sometime in the future to alllow funding of Obamacare. However, the 2014 info I rereived from medicare claims the 2013 premiums will remain intact. When they start screwing with my costs, that’s about the time this guy will be driven over the edge. There’s a quiet revolt forming and when the lid blows, look out. People will take just so much. What we need is a good old fashioned revolution but it seems like the average joe just doesn’t give a damn until it hits him in the wallet. Time will tell!
I’ve been long USD for several days now Mick, having suggested USD strength to follow some days ago…..it’s a cyclical type thing and a technical area for a move higher. This….”coupled” with ( in my view ) the beginnings of a possible “move to safety” has USD gaining here.
I wish I could get on board with “belief in U.S data / recovery” but unfortunately not.
Taper talk will be exactly that as it’s absolutely 100% impossible for the Fed to stop – in fact, they will soon need to step on the gas and increase QE.
I think this Obamacare thing may very well balloon into something larger, and as you’ve suggested – A revolution is what’s needed!
I here you Kong, but I really don’t know what could change things here. Like I say, I think the average American now really doesn’t see themselves as part of the problem when they are the problem. There are just way to many people here now that are getting some type of government assistance and they don’t want that to stop. How do you wean people off the public teat? It’s only been going one way for so many years and now I’m afraid it’s reached a point where those type of people can elect themselves whoever will give it to them. Sorry to be so negative but I really can’t see anything to turn it around. My feeling is that this will continue until it can’t, which will mean some type of collapse.
I’m often jabbed about being negative trust me – YOU are not negative!
“Realistic” is a whole lot different than “pessimistic”.
The million dollar question – what will it take to get people on the move?
LDK – you have one of the very few blogs on the internet which is willing to promote the unfortunate realities of the world scene and discuss ways to bob and weave to stay alive. Globalization is going to play some funny games in the next months, years.
Thank you sir.
I’ve been trying my best to sift through the things I read / see around me, and pull out those little bits that might get the odd person thinking…hmmm……ok….that’s a little different!
I don’t know…..maybe after all these years moving around I’ve developed a little “global perspective” myself. It’s difficult for me to relate to stories of people “trapped” in scenarios they have no control over. I understand it must be difficult – as the responsibilities of raising a family / day to day survival take presedence. Maybe I’ve been a little selfish too so…..
I can only trade what I’ve got in front of me ( perhaps a bit of a metaphor for how I live my lfe as well ) so……bring on the games.
My neighbors complain about the new food stamp cut and tiny social security cost of living increase yet they they won’t do anything about it – no protests, no voting the bums out, not even a vitriolic email. T. S. Eliot was right.
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
Quick comment on American health coverage. First I live in Texas and am candidly not a fan of the Obama administration and their attempts to socialize our government. That said however I think the negative press on Obamacare may be a little overdone The new policies do away with preexisting conditions. This is a huge plus because prior to this if you were on a an individual plan and had lets say a heart attack you would be unable to secure coverage from another insurer. in the event that you were able to secure a new policy they would no longer cover anything having to do with the circulatory system which essentially is everything in your body. Subsequently you would become a prisoner of your current insurer. Over time your rates increase annually to the point you are insurance poor if you want coverage for your heart. I have gone on the exchange and checked rates and was pleasantly surprised. I think the biggest problem is extremely poor execution which I believe will gradually become better. All in all not well done but from my perspective the insurance itself is not bad. The impact it will have on small business however is I believe a large negative which is going to be detrimental to job production and our economy in general. That conversation will have to be taken up later however as I am out of time.
Great input Dave – that helps alot as I was of the understanding that pre existing plans where getting smashed far n wide.
If the new rates are “reasonable” then hey….maybe it is just execution, and things will improve.
Good morning, Kong
Have you noticed that USDJPY is looking like breakout material to the upside? I took a small position. My concern is whether or not this will be a false breakout or not. This pair has you know has been pretty tied to risk trends over the last while…..but that correlation has been waning. Perhaps it is time? Anybody have thoughts?
I suppose with QE at status quo and the teeny little bit of taper jabber plus BOJ larger easing with no talk of taper could be a driving force.
Symetrical triangle break to the upside yes.
I traded it this week for a couple bucks but didn’t stick around as……I’ve got a bit of trouble lining it up fundamentally.
I’m going to wait a little longer and see what’s up with JPY hanging in like such a champ.
Good eye JSKogs – as usual.
Thanks for the compliment much appreciated.
Ya I guess if you consider them both safe havens (induced punishment aside) and we go into a serious correction, its really hard to decide which one will receive the inflows. Both have major downside printing pressure but one has a safer bond sitch. I have a small position and its positive. I think I’ll let it roll with a stop at breakeven for an experiment because I really have no idea what it will do. Haha that sounds like a move that should not be made – how does it go? Never make a trade you don’t understand….well every rule needs to be broken sometimes. Also pretty bullish udsjpy candle today so..
Have a good weekend, Kong
Thanks for keepin it fresh!