With over a month of inactivity short of holding the same positions, the same strategy as outlined here countless numbers of times – our old friend The U.S Dollar has done us proud.
The “dumb buck” has lost some 1000 pips v.s the Japanese Yen since markets topped some months ago, and has made an equally bad showing against the majority of its rivals.
This has only just begun.
You may recall chatter some months ago about China and a number of other countries moving away from use of The Dollar in international trade, and recent news suggests that now Iran ( with sanctions being lifted ) is looking to sell its oil in Euro only.
Unfortunately you just can’t have it both ways.
Things will only spiral further down the drain when U.S interest rates go negative ( where essentially they are already if you consider inflation ) and The Fed looks to launch QE5.
All those worthless dollars already printed…..and a shit pile more coming soon – to an unemployment office near you. This is no time to be disappointed or upset! Rejoice in your new-found knowledge that the entire “economic recovery” has been a complete and total sham, and be glad you made the realization early enough to survive.
Have you survived? I hope so.
And it’s really not too late…unless of course you are still of the mindset that “The Central Banks” have got your back well then…….one would think you’d of learned your lesson over the past month er so.
Earth is selling off hard. There isn’t a damn thing “they” or “anyone” can do about it.
Global stock markets are literally “tanking daily” and in my view things are just getting started.
From a technical perspective we’ve only just “shaved the top” off this mountain off bullshit, now with The SP 500 still hanging around the neckline area of support – but that won’t last much longer.
New lows…..then even “lower lows” to follow as The U.S Dollar plummets, Japanese Yen come flooding back to the country where they were printed, Euro and GBP remain elevated and the commodity related “currencies” trade flat.
A low in oil at some point ( correlating with the dump in USD ) won’t mean the markets will recover…not in the slightest as oil will then just bounce along said bottom for eternity. No immediate opportunities there.
People are flat busted, food prices are “out of this world” and global economic data is quickly turning from bad to horrific. This is not a blip. This is not a “correction”. This is not a drill.
This is 2016 baby….and it will be one for the books.
Kong, my man, it’s good to hear from you. I was thinking about you just yesterday, “he must’ve banked some silly money”.
Not sure what can save us anymore. Politics need to implement structural reforms, banks need to lend the printed money to Main Street, that would be a good start i guess.
I hope you are well. Yes I’ve sat back for a significant period and just let the trades run.
Keep in mind I had some long months on the other side waiting for this to pick up steam…but so it goes right?
Lemme know what you are up to these days. I am back online and will be posting regularily again.
Good article Ry I always read your articles and soon that ole man of yours will be another year wiser! BJ
Another year gone by! Hope all is well with you guys…..I will be seeing you soon!
Great post and after read your post I am very impressed..