I’m starting to run the risk of being called a “top caller” as the Alibaba I.P.O stirs further “bullish euphoria” across markets here this morning.I can live with that – if people are willing to consider this a ” 7 month topping process”.
The fundamentals clearly suggest global growth is set for a significant downturn moving forward, and it’s impossible to argue that. Trading is trading and investing is investing. You make your own choices.
I’ve traded through it as we all have – with some fantastic wins, a couple of losses but most importantly with caution. The time to step on the gas will come, and even while “pumping the break” 400 pips short AUD there and ( just over the last 48 hours really ) another 300 or so long GBP/USD as suggested some days ago.
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Obviously another day with markets at all time highs, and the media blast right along with it. Buy,buy – you must buy now!
I’m not buying it. You know this by now.
The Japanese Yen is a “hair away from bottoming” as USD soon looks to take its “intermediate journey” lower, and there along side it will be U.S equites. It “is what it is” for another day here with very few irons in the fire, patiently plugging away and taking the trades that come.
Re entry ( or your first ) here long GBP / USD around 163.00 looks fantastic, as USD slooooowly runs out of gas.
More in the weekly report Sunday evening, and via “real time market commentary” during every trading day at www.forexkong.net/register
I think your call will prove to be correct. The first obvious topping behavior was the introduction of Apple’s new iPhone and their useless watch. Alibaba’s IPO is the super exhaustion topping process for the NASDAQ. From here we will look down.
I kinda think this USD rally might have legs and surprise a lot of people. GBP went back up to level pre-Scottish scare, and now has dropped 200 pips, I think a test at 1.60 and then 1.58 is in order and possible low 1.50s, maybe 1.48 longer-term. EUR just seems fudged, if we do go 1.30-1.32 I think a massive short is in order, it’s going to be a great funding currency against some high yielders but will probably squeeze a few people out first as it pops higher in the crosses (look at EUR/AUD for example), I think we go low 1.20’s minimum though longer-term. USD/JPY will likely pullback good but I think it’s a buy on dips.
Really respect and enjoy your analysis Kong, but I’m leaning strong USD b/c JPY and EUR are doing what USD policy was doing and now USD is ending QE and does not seem to oppose small rate hikes. Fundamentals and technical are lining up it seems (could use a healthy pullback first though).
I find Kong´s trading quiet interesting. Last time I checked Kong went long at 1.34 on EUR/USD and short Yen on different pairs.
In the meantime the dollar surged while the Yen dropped hundreds of pips against every other currency. So all these trades are in the red BIG TIME.
So what I am trying to figure out is this. When are these trades invalid, when a margin call occurs ? Where are the stops for these trades ? Are there any ?
BTW If the 10yr breaks out of this flag where its currently in then you will see dollar strength like there is no tomorrow.
Good luck and happy trading you all.
Yes you sound a bit permabear.
What if there is not big correction due in 2014?