Perhaps I’m a bit to “cryptic” at times – and I apologize for that, but I just can’t stand the standard technical analysis – spouting out endless waves that never complete, Fib retracements that continually get breached, and technical indicators that have been proven “useless” time and time again. Look at them sure….but “live by them”? – No.
The fundamentals “do” still matter however masked / disguised they’ve been ( via our good friends at The Central Banks ) and the longer term time frames / macro trading still trumps “slugging it out in the trenches” day after day – during these unprecedented times of indecision.
As per the prior couple posts outlining the perceived “future movements in forex markets” – this “will” play out exactly as outlined.
I’m not placing any new trades here today….and likely “neither should you” but…..a quick recap:
JPY UP = Risk OFF
JPY UP = USD DOWN = U.S Equities DOWN
USD DOWN = EUR , GBP and CHF UP
RISK OFF = AUD, NZD, CAD DOWN
This is general ( yet invaluable ) information you can keep with you for the extent of your forex trading career, while keeping an open mind that “at times” a few of these may temporarily shift. These “times” are macro , MACRO MACRO, and are more so an indication of a “change in the investment environment” and not as much about the individual country / currency.
We will see this dynamic change WHEN INTEREST RATES BEGIN TO RISE, and we enter a time of monetary “contraction” as opposed to “expansion”.
The time is coming very soon, but until then – the “next trade” is either “more of the same” ( which by any analysis appears near impossible ) or the outline suggested above.
I say USD tanks and the majority of “predominantly American investors/bulls” get their asses handed to them by the very same banks / institutions that sold them the stock in the first place.