I’m pretty sure most of you are a touch “confused” about what to do these days.
Markets “appear” to be moving along with little concern for the world around them, and complacency is literally – RAMPANT. You need perspective. You need to step back. You need to consider that longer term trends and normal market dynamics are still in play – however delayed via Central Bank intervention, money printing, media blitz etc..
And if you are still one of those that feels the media plays “no role” in influencing your investment decisions well…..you need to step out! You have fallen down the rabbit hole, and will eventually climb to the surface….with nothing.
Understand that in order for the machine to keep moving forward, your investment capital is essential. You will never answer the phone to hear your broker suggesting to sell. Never. Your capital paves the way for the bankers and MUST remain in the system for the system to work.
Have you fully come to realize what “negative interest rates” in the E.U really means?
The banks will hold your money at a – negative interest rate. That’s right – you pay “them” to keep your money.
Have you ever heard of anything more ridiculous? Seriously….”0″ interest is one thing….but negative rates?
All the while you line up to make deposits. You’ve lost your mind and don’t even know it, as your trust in the system has completely stifled your ability to “think creatively”.
And isn’t the what humans do? Don’t we make stuff? Don’t we build things? Don’t we reach further? Don’t we inherently create?
A “money eating machine” has been created…and you live inside it.
It doesn’t need to be this way.
Get outside the box.
USDJPY getting absolutely creamed. No fundamental or technical reason to sell it. Higher rates in US = weaker JPY, No rate rise in US = weaker JPY as carry trade still on.
Only thing that can save JPY is a horrendous carry trade unwind or jaw boning (if that) by BOJ that JPY has fallen to far too fast. Weaker JPY will have profound effect on the other countries in the region which will lead to a Asian crisis.
At present, only real buyers of JGB are the BOJ themselves. They know if they wish to encourage foreigners to buy, they’ll have to offer much higher rates which they are not prepared to do. No foreigner will buy JGB’s knowing full well the Japanese have no desire to see their currency strengthen which means anyone buying JPY will lose on the FX when they repatriate their currency. Anyway, why should anyone buy JGB’s when the 10yr yields 0.50% and the 30yr yields 1.51%. No where for JGB’s to go except down.
Hopefully JPY will strengthen as not sure we can have a major risk off without a carry trade unwind that includes the JPY but at present, JPY is
Looking for a place to sell CADJPY now. Out my longs which I held for what seems like near eternity.
I think once the ramifications of OPEC not cutting their oil production today, we could see Oil go back down in to the 40’s. If so, the effect of lower oil prices on the CAD economy are not to good.
The other commodity currencies AUD and NZD have fallen quite a bit but CAD seems to have held up particularly well especially against JPY.
Nice rejection at 100.77 which was also a resistance line I had on the hourly from a while ago. Lets see.
Short CAD /JPY looks good here for sure.
I have no trade in USD/JPY but will be adding to other shorts here on the dip.