It’s funny really….well perhaps not, as there is real money at stake but…
Placing a human being in front of a computer, loading it full of money ( leverged money ) with a big red “sell button” in one hand and a big green “buy button” in the other.
An interesting experiment to observe. Throw the T.V and main stream media into the mix and you’ve got your self a real recipe for disaster. Or not depending on your ability to control fear….and greed.
Japan making the expected turn here first ( Down -600 points here over night ) so you all know what that means.
Whatcha gonna do? You pressing the big red button yet? Maybe greed has got you by the tail – who knows.
You’re only human right?
Silly question perhaps but what/who exactly is buying US stocks? I have been watching for a while and am totally perplexed by how quickly every single dip seems to be brought so aggressively.
I know there is plenty of buybacks but with main players not buying, what exactly is driving stocks upwards with absolutely no pull back over the past six weeks.
No main player buying adds even more to the puzzle.
Almost as if US stock indices have absolutely no fear at all of any event. When oil is rallying, that is an excuse for US stocks to rally. When oil falls, that is being ignored and stocks still rally.
Totally confused :-/
So many moving parts Madness….you certainly aren’t alone in being a tad “confused”.
Co-relations are difficult to come by and now that the “simple analysis/deduction” that Central Banks just buy buy buy is out the window – you are right on the money.
What the hell is going on?
If you want my take…..this last 6 weeks is simply “retail mom n pops – verrrrrry late to the show” thinking they’ve nailed a great entry, when in reality they just got handed the bag.
A reduction in volume…and as you’ve stated a loss of “big players” suggest to me that this is indeed ” A LAST/SECOND CHANCE TO SELL “.
I would also suggest eliminating Oil from your list of assets to observe and corelate as……it will likely bounce around between the recent lows and 40 er 50…even 60 bucks for eternity.
Hi kong, so what can we observe? Even a strong yen is not driving us mkts down, weak or strong usd also dowsnt seem to matter..weak or strong gold either..or we shld totally ignore the s&p? This week is the worst…nothing seem to matter except stock going up while the world crashes….
The SP 500 will always……ALWAYS be the last domino to fall. Patience is paramount as we can’t look to see “global corelations” play out in a day to day sense.
If you pull charts and view weekly candles…Nikkei should give you better indication as….it’s clearly falling out of bed.
A single weekly candle holds 5 complete trading days, and if we want to see solid indication of a change of direction on weekly…we are still early on SP 500.
I’m always early.
Issue with oil is that when it rallies, it’s considered a reason to buy. When it falls, it’s ignored. Just like copper has now started to fall again, everyone seems to be ignoring it.
You are correct, correlations are all over the place. If economy is doing well, long-term yields should be rising but they are falling which suggests a recession ahead. Yet stocks move ahead like everything is great. Look at the move in S&P today. 15 points in an hour with no pull back. Straight up move.
USDJPY has fallen yet US stocks all rallying.
The CB’s have truly broken the markets yet in their eyes, they are doing a wonderful job. So much mis-pricing yet everyone is afraid of CB intervention. Past few years have conditioned everyone to fear the FED.
Personally I don’t think the large majority of retail investors have any real concept of “The Fed” or the lack of….or any real idea how the real global economy is doing.
These people buy at the very worst possible times ( now right at the top ) and then get rinsed / sell out at the bottom. This is the true nature of markets / retail investing as it generally just serves to profit bankers and brokers.
I think we are seeing the very last gasp of retail investment now…as the big boys have long ago sold / handed off the bag. These things can take many months…and in this case “essentially” the entire year of 2015!
Patience and a macro view are key. You can’t get caught following the heard.