If you don’t have a plan. You’ll never succeed at this.
Watching the T.V or looking for a quick tip in some bullshit newsletter is exactly that – bullshit. You might catch one here or there….but without a well thought out plan “days n’ days” ahead of time – you’re hooped.
Recall some days ago I suggested that The U.S Dollar “might” roll over early ( along side U.S stocks and risk appetite in general ) providing for the next fantastic trading opportunity? I think I gave it 6-8 days max.
So here we are. Some 6 days later and whatever “rally” we may have expected in “risk” has really yet to materialize. And of course, Thursdays are “data days” where Wall St. usually makes some of it’s larger moves so…..the timing is exactly right.
The plan is simple.
If USD rolls over and puts in a “swing high” – I’m shorting risk via the following currency pairs:
- Short: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and even CAD/JPY
- Long: EUR/USD, GBP/USD
- Then some form of play on Gold via any number of instruments.
If The U.S Dollar does not roll over/ swing high Thursday. I will “entertain” long ideas, but likely wait until Monday for entry.
So there it is. This is what the pro’s are doing “if indeed” risk comes off….and if not? I’ll look to jump on board for a few little trades in Kool-aide.
I hear it’s all the rage these days.
great comment Kong. With fed minutes coming up, draghi again talking, non farm pay roll might be looking good for someone like myself to enter on monday when some of the noise has settled.. One thing i have noticed i see something coming like you said for days and days, then some bloody fed or ecb head talks, pushes the market the other way for a bit then trend resumes a couple of days later in most cases where you are looking…
It is a long learning curve but i feel after about 4 yrs of doing this, i am getting the hang of it….
This year has taught me alot about patience, as the market has been in a bit of a range and holding pattern, with some quick moves here and there…
the usd is hanging on by a thread and euro and pound strengthening, cant wait for these to materialize
Patience is key Tas…..as well the strategy of “small orders over time” helps too.
I hear you loud and clear with respect to those pesky news releases…and have also had to learn some lessons the hard way.
Keeping your trades small keeps you in the game longer. This year / most of last year have been difficult no question, but if you’re still out on the field…I can only assume you’re moving in the right direction.
Keep it up!
How to spot a pro: he has a plan (and a journal).
“If Scenario A materializes (here DX swing high on thursday) then execute Plan A,
else Plan B (here wait for monday, reassess)”.
I like that you have a *What* (DX Swing high), a *Where* (near 50D SMA i presume), a *When* (6-8 days, Thursday).
Personally i’ve added a *Where to* (a clear defined target for intraweek moves, no position trading over here).
Without these 4 elements chances are my trade will be bad or… hard to manage to say things politely.
Where have you been? So nice to see you back / contributing here. I’m curious…How have things been going for you these past months?
A man with a plan is a wonderful thing…and you’ve got it 100% right on the money in looking at “two possible outcomes”..and evaluating what you might do in either situation. Excellent!
I say it time and time again…this is “trading” – up or down to make “mooooney”. If you can juuuust hang in there long enough to get past the emotional “connections” to either direction – you’ve got it made.
All the best to you – lemme know how things are going.
I’ll send you an email later this week, probably during the snoozefest a few hours before NFP. Currently waiting for the FOMC minutes and as you mentioned we might see some activity tomorrow, so yeah, Friday pre NFP sounds about right.
Also don’t forget the Trump-China meeting, i can see big players waiting for this to be over before committing to anything.
Trump China meeting…….I think its pretty fair to say – we can all imagine that goes well – NOT>
Even today’s close looks ominous as I LOOOOVE the daily candle on $USD.
With in regards to nfp and fomc etc. Do you generally wait for the news to come out and settle say for a day or so, then look to enter a trade if it sets up with price action etc?
This is one area i am trying to refine amongst many 🙂
I find the news especially with the fed of late has stopped the usd from a price drop.
Thanks and great replies.
Yes i usually avoid trading news events but the more i study them the more opportunities i see that actually follow my plan so i’m more and more tempted to trade them.
This is why i’m pretty sure i’ll get fucked the first time I try it with live funds. 😀
If you have a plan making you money then follow that plan. If it doesn’t include high volatility events then don’t trade them. If you must then trade them on demo for a year or so, study your stats, and maybe consider including them in your plan.
Not much more to say really.
thx for reply to my question much appreciated…
I might have to re think my short entries i was looking for a fullish brake out of usd and it did look on target lol. FED staying out in the open their gonna start to unload the balance sheet spooked everything.. i mean i dont know what other nastys are hiding in there but im guessing its squished in with alot of stock. 10yr dropped it like its hot too
FED saying out in the open even.. think the t button felt left out 🙂