Likely a pretty slow / sleepy to start to the week considering the slow summer months so…
Long EUR/USD still looks like the most reasonable play here for a bounce in risk / move lower in USD.
The JPY pairs are behaving “exactly as expected here” so for those interested in taking a shot ya…..just look to get your stops below those “prior near term lows” and let it be what it will be.
Commod currencies ( AUD / NZD and CAD ) would usually bounce along side risk as well but from what I can see / consider here these past days – they aren’t looking to make any major moves.
With AUD now “finally” showing its hand I think it’s safe to say these currencies have already began the larger “longer term move” in selling off / making the turn.
Sure we can expect a bounce but I really don’t think they’ll get to far.
We’ve identified that AUD has now rolled over on has high a time frame as the 4H – taking months to do so.
This kind of thing is not just “quickly reversed” so again……please consider any further “upside” in AUD to be “counter trend” and trade it accordingly.
I’m adding a couple contracts long EUR/USD here today, and will trade it actively should we see some volume and a solid move.
The benefit of staggering small orders over time should be noted here….as EUR/USD still sits around 1.34 – now going on a full week.
There is “no benefit” in jumping into a trade with your full position / max commitment during times like these, as you tie up capital that essentially just “sits there” – grinding you to shreds.
Forex moves a lot slower than most short-term traders initially understand ( getting caught up in the smaller time frame volatility / chop ) when “in reality” – price is going nowhere.
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