Making a prediction for the future is easy. (In response to a valued readers questions)
The precious metals have decoupled from the dollar to a certain extent, so putting a time frame on the future prices of these two “asset classes” based on the usual correlations is difficult. I do predict that gold will go up and the dollar will fall. (go figure eh?)
I expect the USD to make its way lower through the first couple weeks of January – then take a usual oversold bounce, and then at least one more leg even lower into the middle/late February. During this time equities will likely push to near term highs then top out and trade sideways. As I am constantly moving in and out of the market I plan to be 100% cash sometime late February early March at the absolute latest, but in a different sense than my usual trading. I will continue to play the safe havens against the risk related currencies with possible addition / focus on EUR.
I plan to completely re-evaluate my trade plans come March.
A previous article worth reading : click here.
Considering that I trade the fundamentals coupled with an extremely accurate shorter term technical system – I will really just allow price to guide me. As per my usual shorter term entries and exits – I am (more often than not) sitting in cash during times of “trendless market direction” so regardless of exact dates / predictions I will trade what I see – as I see it.
I will continue to post real-time trade activity here via twitter, as well through the daily posts. I suggest extreme caution after this next (and possibly final) move up in equities and risk in general – come mid Feb or early March.