Short of the obvious / continued and “awesome” moves higher in JPY ( and much lower moves in the commodity pairs vs JPY ) the currency market seems to have “stalled”.
We’ve long since come to understand the move towards risk aversion would bring strength to JPY and weakness to the commods, but had recently factored / considered that “USD as well” would make its move lower as equities sold off.
The cross winds of “unwinding The U.S Carry trade” continue to keep USD elevated, as all those U.S Dollars borrowed on the cheap – continue to flood back.
Good luck to intra day traders as suggested some time ago as…..100 + pip swings and incredible volatility in the equity markets make this 100% impossible.
Gold and Silver are most certainly finding a footing ( alongside JPY ) as “the safety trade” looks to gain further ground.
Incredibly ( as it’s always been my assumption that U.S Equities are “the last to fall” ) The U.S Dollar has traded sideways along with EUR/USD, GBP/USD a good 5 days now so…perhaps in this instance we’ll see USD bringing up the rear.
Patience is needed as always……even when you find yourself on the right side of the trade.
I continue to hold long JPY vs AUD, NZD and CAD, with starter entries short USD vs EUR, GBP and MXN – also looking to USD/CHF and even a stab at USD/CAD once we see some further confirmation.