He he he……gotcha.
Let’s get something straight here. When I make the suggestion of “a top” or (as I have been since April) a “topping process” – I don’t mean the world is gonna come crashing down around you like in some bullshit movie out of Hollywood.
The financial “powers that be” already got their wake up call in 2008 with Lehman Bros etc and it’s pretty much a given that we won’t be seeing something like that happening again anytime soon.
There is no “doomsday prophecy” here, no “go buy guns n ammo” cuz they’re coming for your gold, no “end of the world scenario’s” no. This stuff rolls out in “real time” and navigating the peaks n valley’s these days just gets tougher and tougher, as the situation gets more desperate.
We know the “coordinated Central Bank effort” is flooding the planet with cash, and we know the tensions between East and West are intensifying. We know the world’s largest consumer economy is still struggling to get back on its feet ( if ever ) and we also know that the large majority of people involved with investment / finance are hell-bent on making it so.
Global appetite for risk comes “on” and it comes “off”. Simple as that. Identifying these times can be extremely profitable for those who choose to fight it out in the trenches.
If you actually think you can weather “buy and hold” when a mere 10% correction in U.S equities has the potential to wipe your account to zero then fine! Do it! Buy all you can tomorrow – and disregard concern for the “global appetite for risk”.
I call it like I see it, and I see a lot.
I’m not particularly “optimistic” about the next few years but that doesn’t mean I think the world is gonna end.
You choose to trade, or you choose to invest. DON’T CONFUSE THE TWO.
Sorry about the misleading headline although – seriously………it’s all I can do these days not to “go completely mad” writing about this day after day. It “may” happen again but at least just this once….give ol Kong a break. (I bet you read the damn thing as fast you could get it open).
We’ve ok here………………………..at least for Monday.
written by F Kong
I was reading your previous article and I got this one after. I shocked.you really got me man!!
I’m likely gonna catch alot of flack over this but…I try to keep this “somewhat entertaining” as well.
I can’t go on day after day talking about these clowns in Washington, and the “price of entry / trades I’m in”.
I didn’t start a blog to sit here going over “forex news” day after day. There are lots of other sites for that.
I hope you’ll be ok. He he he…
Interesting. I see that CNBC and MarketWatch just published articles telling the “public” that it’s now time to sell stocks and that the market has topped. LOL, is that what a top looks like?
Well…..for me personally the markets “did top” back in April so….
Industry leaders such as Appl, Cat , IBM beat down…and now looking to fall further. The index unto itself pretty much in exactly the same spot.
So…..does one consider “further upside” vs “potencial downside” here? With the charts supplied , and the pure “technical insantiy” in current asset prices?
I’m surprised to hear that CNBC wouldn’t still be blowing the horn that “all is well” and “just don’t worry”. I guess at some point “even they” must have trouble getting up every morning and spouting the same to the American people. Who watches that crap?
LOL Dr. Kong you KILL me….. cheers have a great weekend!!!
A guy’s got to keep things light, although now in retrospect – I could take some heat for this.
I hope valued readers here will take a joke – it’s always best to laugh.
I thought you didn’t look at the DJIA :). The risk indexes (NDX and RUT) are higher than May. And the NDX did it without much help from its largest component (AAPL). But if this is the top, they will break intermediate support and stop making higher highs. And the risk indexes probably will stop leading the way higher. Anyways Kong, have a great weekend and thanks for your blog. It’s one of the few I follow.
He he he….better keep an eye on you! ( these companies are in the W5000 too so….) Of course I’m aware of them, just not in context of 30 of em in the DOW.
Hey…..again the word “process” comes to mind as with such incredible intervention etc…what? I’m gonna call it “on the day”? No chance.
You’ve got it…..looking for intermediate support break sure….
Andrew – the question begs to be asked then…. are you a buyer here?
How’s “$BKX” doing Andrew?
He he he……its funny really.
We all look at different things, looking to piece it all together. No one has an answer, as we all create trade plans accordingly – the combinations are limitless.
For fun have a peak. In my mind…..if “this thing” is now making a series of “lower highs” – hmmmmmm…………
Not a buyer here, but I was an aggressive buyer on August 30. I totally agree with your point, though, that there’s something wrong if you’ve suddenly developed the urge to buy now. Tough environment for banks with interest rates not going up any time soon. Definitely a stock picker market. BTW, I hope your friends get aggressive on FB and do their very best to push it way higher. I think that would be fantastic!
There you go….a day here a week there. We all do our best to navigate.
You’ve nailed it right on the head – a stock pickers market ( if that’s your thing ). I can’t get into that – watching example after example ( the worlds’ most successful companies falling, then “airlines and casino’s surging etc..) of it making no sense what so ever.
As for FB ( it’s pretty clear where you’re at ). Me? – hosing investors on a completely bungled public offering and taking this entire time to get just get back to the initial price?? The offering itself might as well been the top really. Now twitter – how ironic.
Let’s see if “they too” can rinse as many investors as possible.
Yeah, we’ll have to see on FB. Interesting dynamic going on there with every single shareholder in the profit now. Probably all the initial investors from IPO day gone after puking the stock near the bottom. But I suppose it’s not any more of a rinsing than goes on every day in the FX markets. It’s really all the same game.
Perhaps “volatility” in forex markets can / will be percieved as “rinsing”, although……Central Banks and the big boys don’t play on the daily time frames as far as I know….let alone anything smaller.
FB opening and getting cut in half in 10 days! – wow……I’d say the intial investors have indeed exited – in the first 10 days!
Pass that bag off baby……hello retail!
Kong…. with the market pulling back along with PM in the Friday news of Taper ( AGAIN!! ) the DXY on it’s own did not react as one would expect in such a situation even after a very large move lower…. one would have to expected a larger move Friday & with taper back on the table to boot….. what’s your take on that situation…. .I think it could be telling us that it does not matter…. it’s going lower regardless of taper/no taper…
USD swung low on daily, as equities “swung high” so……
Both look to be in the timing band / area of correction.
I went fishing Thurs / Fri long USD vs Cad, as well GBP ( up pretty good )- and the “insanity trades” are essentially / yet bizzarely risk off as well so. It’s now painfully clear that USD and equities will trade inversely for “whatevever the next leg is” so…..as it stands, I’m looking long USD.
USD to the basement yes – tomorrow / next week? we’ll have to see.
Counter trend rallies after such a move are generally equally deadly.
I’m fighting the trend here Schmed as I’m fighting with Ben obviously….
I’m always early right? How much longer can it really be? Seriously?
Christ….even a normal 5% correction in equities no?
The news of “no taper” ( in my view ) shot the Fed’s credibility even further as they practically walked retail directly off the bridge.
Otta set up your own citizens with a “heads up” as to your future moves, then pull the rug at the last minute. Now get this…..”taper talk” back on for Oct. This has passed ridiculous, and one can ony hope that a larger populus is taking notice.
The Fed acting in the interest of the people?? Common! They just rinsed the lot!
Of course…a couple friends of mine are going “all in” FB next week – expecting it to hit 100 so…..I guess all is well (puke).
I just can’t participate in “upside projections” here. If it goes…..fine – I sit.
I’m not a bear – but certainly not a bull. USD more or less hangs in the balance, and it’s direction has become more and more difficult to discern.
Pot Stock Watch. Do you post your trades or positions anywhere on the site? I see your performance, but I don’t see the trades. Am I blind? Can someone tell me where to find them?
No I’m not posting my specific trades – as thats an entirely different thing.
A paid service “will” be put in place here at some point, but as it stands this is still a personal blog.
I feel that people lose sight of that at times….
Money management being a huge part of it – I’m not about to get into every little deatail – as traders with 2k accounts are wiped out / crying when a trade goes 50 pips against them. This blog will never “become that”.
That Wilshire chart !, it’s really convincing. and has a lot of info. Iseriously agree with you.