I hate to say it, but the Canadian Dollar is heading for some “rough times” in coming months.
Considered a “risk related currency” along side both the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar ( as these countries economies are primarily based on the export of raw materials / natural resources ) a slowing China, slowing global growth, and a “floundering United States” won’t do much to help Canada and its “loonie” stay aloft.
Awful employment data last week certainly didn’t help either, but that’s not nearly as large a driving factor as slowing global growth. These countries depend on “selling what they’ve got” to keep people working and to keep the economy strong, so by simple way of “supply and demand” these economies suffer when global growth slows.
And it is slowing. Not matter what you read or see on your television.
None of this turns on a dime obviously, so for the most part you’ll only really “hear of it” long after it’s well under way ( as it’s happening at this very moment ) but the reforms in China will continue to creep into the “inner workings” of our global economy, while the U.S as well Europe continue to struggle – just to keep their heads above water.
Short “Canada” starting to make sense, as I’m already long USD/CAD as well short CAD/JPY.