Well this is it people – the countdown begins.
You can count yourself as lucky – no…..”very lucky” as to have some idea where / when the merry-go-round stops spinning – this being the “final turn” before the party ends.
We’re down to a matter of weeks now – if not days.
I don’t generally speculate on such short-term movements, but with respect to “this one” having such significance to the longer term / larger trend – I feel it’s reasonable to put something out there.
Let’s give it a full two weeks, 14 days ( give or take a day here and there ) before anyone “greedy enough” to still find themselves “hanging around” – finds themselves wishing they’d taken note.
This will mark the “final surge” in global appetite for risk, and the final push towards the highs, before the historical repetition of the typical “boom and bust cycle” takes effect once again.
The Fed meeting at Jackson Hole ( scheduled for Aug 21st ) will undoubtedly be the trigger, as Yellen suggests “for the very first time” that indeed it’s time for “risk takers” to exercise caution, or to be blunt – get the hell outta the way as fast as they possibly can.
In a matter of weeks “nay-sayers” will be left holding the bag, giving each and every one of you ample time to act accordingly – if you do so choose.
Currency markets have already made the transition ( with commodity related currencies smashed as of late ) as they will always lead, with safe havens catching the bid – suggesting the turn is already well underway.
You don’t want to be the last one out the door, and their will be ample trading opportunities on the “other side of the mountain” if you can just manage to discipline yourself to “get out of this while you can” and not get caught holding.
The countdown has begun.
Best of luck to all of you.
Hi Pot Stock Watch, very interesting post.
But I’m just wondering if you’re talking about a stock market crash coming, or a dollar crisis coming?
We now see The U.S Dollar trading “opposite risk” as equities are sold and cash is raised ( I sell my U.S Equities priced in Dollars, and those dollars then hit my bank account).
This is “finally” the repatriation dynamic I’ve spoke of suggesting “dollar strength” to follow in The Fall.
A “Dollar Crisis” may rear it’s head right around “the next time” The Fed steps in and cranks up the printing presses which will likely be “in reponse to” the coming “repricing of risk” coming soon to a theatre near you.
Thanks buddy, makes a lot of sense.
“Dollar strength” to follow in the fall? USD has already risen against so many currencies, and you think it’s going to continue to strengthen in the fall (which I believe is september till dec)? That certainly sounds like quite a long duration of strengthening isn’t it?
“A “Dollar Crisis” may rear it’s head right around “the next time” The Fed steps in and cranks up the printing presses which will likely be “in reponse to” the coming “repricing of risk” coming soon to a theatre near you.” — This is actually something a few economists (like Peter Schiff) are predicting too. I guess the big question is WHEN. Some think it’ll be this year, while others think it’ll be the end of 2015.
Finally, would love to hear your thoughts on USD/CHF in the short-term (weeks to months from now).
P.S I’ve got to congratulate you for your call on GBP/AUD the last time. Even though it went down 100 pips or so before your stated “position”, it went up quite rapidly afterwards, probably made your readers some good money 🙂
Considering USD is involved with nearly 87% of global transaction, I find it difficult to see a “Dollar Crash” as readily / quickly as the “doom sellers suggests. These things take time, and as we can already see via the BRICS bank formation and the huge number of trade agreements both Russia and China have globally ( 24 some countries now trading “outside the dollar” ) – the writing is obviously on the wall.
However….with a system so large, woth so many moving part and with so much “riding on it” ( The entire U.S ponzi scheme ) I’m extremely confident that we will see The U.S go to war ( in protection of the USD as the worlds reserve ) before we ‘ll see it crash.
Some great trades shaping up here thank you John….a tough summer but we’re over the hump now. Forex markets set to “rock” come Sept.
Nothing will happen. We are at the start of a new cycle if you look at rates, even if it’s already 7 years after the crash. Look at history, when the fed starts tightening stocks will not sell off. Only after a few hikes stocks will substantially be sold.
In a ultra low rate environment fund managers HAVE TO buy equities in search for yield, yes HAVE TO ! So there will be dip buyers everywhere on any pullback.
I’m participating in this pullback too ( as why not take advantage of the complete ignorance of most ).
Institutional money has been selling you their stock since January, and has already more or less “left the building”.
A new cycle of low rates?? Oh man…where on Earth are you getting your information from?
Take a look at this “simple and obvious” chart for some idea. https://forexkong.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/smart_money.png
Rates can’t go much lower than “0%” now can they?
You are not very experienced in this business are you ? Do yourself a pleasure and find out what a short term debt cycle is and what it’s characteristics are.
Let me tell you this, a crash/recession will not occur when rates are low. Show me a recession in history with these kind of low rates ?
A recession typically occurs when rates are high and the economy is overheated. Does this economy looks overheated to you, is there high inflation, are rates high ? No ? Then keep buying your crappy stocks.
And again – just to prevent you from making an epic blunder – funds will buy at lower levels because THERE IS NOTHING ELSE which offers a descent return. In this phase of the cycle you buy stocks. Period.
All these ignorant folks have lost truckloads of money shorting stocks because “they are overvalued” or “we are in a bubble” completely ignoring the current rate environment.
Based on current rates we are still at the beginning of a new cycle regardless of the 7 years we are already in this “recovery”. And that’s all that matters.
Well this is what makes things interesting as……of all the general comments / analysis / feedback / discussion I get into on a daily basis with regards to this subject….In this case – I could not “disagree more”.
You are operating under the assumption of “recovery” as well the assumption that you’re “NOT” in recession (as you’ve never left…only had the paper pulled over you eyes for the past 6 years worth toilet paper printing).
If you consider “following the news” and the stream of absolutely “ridiculously false daya points ” spewing from The U.S and main stream media then fair enough……you’re already convinced that the Kool-aid ( and subsequent pump in equity prices…which is really only a product of Corporations borrowing toilet paper and “buying back their own stocks” ) will continue to flow. Just buy stocks.
Otherwise, you might consider “by way of The Fed” that the underlying problems / economic disaster of the U.S have only been “magnified” to such a degree that soon enough…the paper catches fire and the house burns down.
Show mw a recession in history thats been as masked / hidden beneath 5 trillion tonnes of phony US Dollars….you can’t cus there’s never been one!
Unprecedented times of Central Bank intervention and equally – investor complacency leads people to a “false sense of security”.
I’m cautious…and have always taken the other side / warned / suggested to readers to take another look / stay objective.
This phase of the cycle?? It’s called “riduculous euphoria” on my charts / graphs / sentiment readings.
And those are readings to sell.
Thanks man, for existing and sharing your thoughts lol, and all the best to your trades for the rest of 2014.
I always love to hear from the few forex traders like yourself who know what they’re talking about.
Thanks again for the positive words – I really do appreciate it.
Don’t be a stranger here, and feel free to ask / share anything “anytime”!