I can feel it in my fingertips.
We’ve worked very hard to not only stay “reasonably safe” these past few weeks, but also make a couple winning trades as well. I can assure – that’s a lot more than one can say for the many who’ve likely been “torn to bits” during this difficult time.
It’s time to put together a medium term plan that “should” have us nail the next “two moves ( taking us out as far as early September ) – where we will then find ourselves in an even better position. I plan on nailing “the third move” then.
I’m going to use the SP 500 ( and it’s correlation to USD ) as a “risk barometer” first…then move to the specifics of which currency pairs we will use to execute the plan.
I’m very confident that SP 1950 ( or so ) and Dow 16,950 ( with Nikkei here at 15,000 ) will mark our “top”, and see one important “turn” for us to be very well aware of coming only a few short weeks ahead. You’ll want to be prepared, and you’ll want to be ready as….I plan on nailing this big time.
The chart and the arrows say it all, as there is really no point debating the “fundamental reasons”. It’s simple. We are headed lower for all the reasons sighted here over the past few months, but “even at that” these next few months will likely leave both bulls and bears scratching their heads looking for the answers. It will still appear “flat” until the larger “sustained move lower” comes in early Sept.
I believe the global macro fundamentals will “finally” match up with the technicals “after” we get this “final rinse” over with this summer. I believe the U.S is already back in ( in fact never left ) recession, and that whatever other “explination” is found in the media over the coming weeks – it really won’t make a difference. Blame it on E.U. Blame it on slowing China. Blame it on war in Ukraine. It doesn’t matter. What matters is trading it effectively.
Short and sweet here.
If you want to get a look at the trades we’re putting on in order to best take advantage over the coming weeks and months – please come join us at Forex Trading With Kong !
How do you feel gold will correlate in your bigger summer picture (One would extrapolate than a lower DXY would mean for higher bullion)?
With both asset classes ( USD and Stocks ) essencially trading in a “V” shape from now until September, I expect Gold to continue in range.
It’s certainly “not a trade” here as I can’t imagine “missing anything” til September.
You see….until this last “dip and rinse” is out of the way we are still just trading “as per ususal” with no real fear / investor concern. This next dip will be “bought” as per normal and if anything likely be taken as an “amazing buying opportunity” by retail.
Will those new buyers in July / Aug be prepared to ditch come September? Very likely not.
Gold will likely find it’s bottom over these next few months, and I Imagine take a decent share of the “safety play” in September, when FINALLY – markets make the “real move” lower.
So you’re steering clear of the asset class entirely this summer?
I am selling yuros small bits all up to 1.42 if necasary, I also like to short bonds think this rally in bonds us 10 30 year is fake and just to suck in weak buyers and kill some shorts. Think it is part of the topping progress in us bonds. Bull market in bonds is over. In equities i feel whe have more room up but need some good pullbacks.