The raft of geopolitical concerns out there ( in particular Ukraine ) are finally starting to influence markets. The largest “current concern” now being what effect Russia and it’s supply of natural gas ( or “lack there of” – should things continue down this road ) will have on The European Economy, which is in a sad enough state of affairs as it is.
This isn’t going away anytime soon, and will likely be the catalyst ( or at least via the main stream media ) where blame can simply be placed on Russia for all problems in Western Economies wherein these problems have just been papered over – having been there all along.
My original post back in February “U.S Wants Ukraine – No Matter What” on the subject.
Of particular interest as it pertains to our trading here, take note of any “1 Hour Chart” containing JPY ( AUD/JPY for example ) from Friday, and see the “blatant and obvious” currency move on news that Ukraine attacked a Russian military convoy.
Japanese Yen is going to absolutely “explode higher” given any type of “black swan event” aside from its continued strengthening on safe haven flows.
Trading The Week Ahead
Our charts for both The SP 500 as well Nikkei have played out almost literally “to the letter” – having taken the anticipated bounce and now looking like they are ready to roll back over.
For more detailed trading, real time trade alerts and daily commentary please consider the Members Area as September is setting up for some of the largest opportunities we’ll have seen over the past several months.
I don’t know if I would look for the markets to roll over soon. Certainly not in front of Yellens speech in Jackson Hole. The PPT will keep the market rising into that event just like it’s kept the market at or near all time highs in front of every important Fed event for the last 2 years. Then we have low volume trading into the end of the month. Very easy for the PPT to keep the market rising. If the trend is up when traders come back to their desks after labor day they never come back looking to fight the trend. That’s going to make it easier for the PPT to keep the market rising into the Sept. FOMC meeting. And there’s just no way the Fed lets the market roll over ahead of the last taper in Oct. at that point.
On a technical basis the rally in the McClellan oscillator has been extremely powerful. More indicative of an intermediate degree rally than a minor daily cycle rally. If that was an intermediate degree bottom two weeks ago then the market is now setup for the Nasdaq to test the all time highs over the next 12-15 weeks. In order for the market to top and head back down the bottom two weeks ago would have to be a minor daily cycle low and not an intermediate degree bottom. It doesn’t look like it though. The relentless surge higher despite short term overbought conditions is more indicative of an intermediate bottom.
We entered triple leveraged funds before the close on Aug. 8. Racked up an 8% gain last week, and have no risk as we now have a break even stop. If the Nasdaq is ready to make a try for the all time highs we are set up to make an insane amount of money over the next 3 months.
Well that’s in 3 days so….I’d consider that “realtively soon”.
The Nikkei is going nowhere but down ( why don’t you do one of your “wave analysis” for us on Nikkei! ) as you’ll see some “wave 3 of 3 type” or “C” stuff just around the bend. Symbol $Nikk http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24nikk
I dont care about Nasdaq as it’s stuffed full of meaningless “bankster / pumper stocks / vehicles”, but obviously we all pick our trades and if you’ve had a good one – good for you.
I obviously trade off different information, as well likely on larger time lines…as I’m still holding short AUD and adding here short AUD/JPY at 95.50
I don’t see the surge higher “relentless” really as I’ve got /ES at 1968 – 1978 as the area for this to stall.
So far – werkin for me.
I don’t do Elliot wave and I don’t pay too much attention to the Nikkei. But this does look like the perfect setup for a final bubble phase manic period to draw in the public like we saw in 2000 tech and 2006 housing. We haven’t really seen that final feeding frenzy type behavior yet the signals a final bubble top.
Well that about says it all then doesn’t it?
You don’t “follow the Nikkei”?…How bout a full “lower low” in global risk sinse January…..now correction complete…and the the entire funding currency ( Yen ) of the last squazillion SP points?
He….man….it’s like you guys troll here but don’t “read here”.
Guy doesn’t follow Nikkei…so you don’t follow the Yen? The funding currency of this entire CB run fiasco?
You know…..short of sounding like an ass….seriously.
I write this stuff down day after day…..but it’s like “over your head or something”.. A question….where do you think the money is coming from if not from the 200 billion per month in Yen printing? With the Fed nearly “out of markets” as far as it’s QE program goes?
You think broke Americans are buying stocks up? Man…..
So……if Yen is being borrowed at 0% and in turn being used to buy bullshit American stocks …..what do think happens when stocks are sold?
You don’t see the correlation between Yen and Gold?
I dont think the current geopolitical backdrop / let alone the soon to be “macro shift in U.S Monetary policy” supports your “blow off manic fenzy idea”.
Perhaps in 2000….or even 2007 sure….
I don’t believe it’s a factor now.
you a funny guy thinking you know what Soros is doing buying a few more puts than usual. and it’s really funny you don’t mention his number of shares ticked up and he bought a large block of calls too. you can’t tell one dang thing about his 45 day old strategy from that, not to mention his whole Index ETF position long & short is a pea sized piece of the puzzle.
hope you unloaded your stinky puts down there at the bottom 🙂
Did great on the puts and will now be looking out to Nov / Dec as SP nears 1978 area, for another staggered approach over the coming weeks.
You’re a funny guy too – wasting your time posting meaningless comments here with the thought in mind that anyone cares.
Why don’t you try to come up with something meaningful or ” god forbid” – helpful?
the other side of the story on the soros fund 13F, minus the hyped cut and paste drivel http://dashofinsight.com/misleading-story-george-soros
and I provide useful stuff, clicky el linko para la bloga señorita. but provide useful stuff in the moderated comments section of a doomer cut and paste site? nahhh
Troll all you like here…..and check your web stats.
I’m “more than confident ” you’ll see “little to no refferal” here.
I checked the comments…..interesting “convo” you’ continue to have with yourself. ( being the only one commenting ).
Good luck with it.
I could care less about referrals. I’m simply pointing out that the idea that I don’t provide useful info is a fallacy 🙂
I can only encourage you to do what you can, to contribute in some meaningful way.
I didn’t get started with this blog to “argue” with every single kid that’s a got a blog and an “idea” of how markets work.
With the public blog on fire, and the Members site taking the majority of my time – please appreciate…..I really don’t have time for this.
You want to keep posting here ( although for the life of me – I’ve no idea why ) knock yourself out……just give the readers something!