The weather here this time of year is absolutely beautiful, with the sun shining and the cool breeze blowing in off the Caribbean sea.
A retired German couple has moved in across the way, with the Mrs. out tending to her flower pots by day, and the gentleman blessing us with the sweet sounds of his accordion / squeeze box music by night. Happy days indeed for those not concerned with the daily comings and goings of the U.S stock market.
A bounce here to around the 2040 Level in SP 500 should give the few remaining bulls ( or at least those that still have a couple bucks left ) a chance to hit the exits before the next leg lower wipes out the lows at 1970 – then heads substantially lower.
Finally marking the near term highs in USD, Gold will hold up ( perhaps a few dollars lower ) before making its next leg higher as safety is “oh so quietly” sought.
The Japanese Yen has long since made its medium term low, and has been consistently gaining strength for weeks now, as commodity currencies continue to get absolutely smashed. AUD/JPY ( remember my most profitable trade idea moving into 2015 ?) as well NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY now down over 1000 pips from their highs.
The sideways action in equities is almost complete, and it should only be a couple more days until we see reversal “again” – this time being the last before the established “downtrend in risk” continues thru February / March.
I’m not trading much these days and as boring as it may appear, sticking with the same medium term plan of “short USD” and “long JPY” ( via everything “other than USD/JPY in itself ) continues to make the most sense.
“Buy and hold” for anyone with “bullish intent” will soon prove to be a misstep.
Kong…how do u see dax n the european mkts with ecb qe coming? Rotation from us equities to europe?
I really don’t think so.
I imagine gold and JPY will take the lions share here soon, as risk comes off further.
I think the bounce in EU Equities has been or “will be” very short lived.
Consider as well….as much as The EURO looks like a complete waste of paper….what happens when EU Equities are sold??? You got it……they where bought in EURO so……EURO goes up.
Bold call – again. Think you are right. European markets already fizzling out. Oil dump will hit the US harder than Europe. So $ will go down against €. US stock markets will have a hard time keeping the high levels. My guess is that the S&P will drop by 50% or more(!) in the next – maybe two – years.