Once again we find ourselves here on Thursday morning, awaiting the release of “the unemployment claims” data out of the U.S. I know the number will be dismal, there’s no question of that………only the question of how markets will interpret the news.
If history is any record, it really doesn’t seem to matter how many “more people” get in line to file unemployment claims each week as U.S equities continue on their grind.
I would “like to think” – this time will be different.
A disappointing number “should” propel USD upwards and U.S equities down but of course….that’s what “should” happen.
Overnight’s “risk off trade” gathered some traction with JPY moving higher, and a brisk sell off of AUD – as expected.
I am 100% out of USD related pairs as of yesterday / last night, and well in profit on the “insanity trade”.
We’ll let the dust settle here this morning….and continue forward with a “now USD long bias” starting to materialize across several currency pairs.
There a couple USD longs that look better than I’d expected when I read your post last night. Short NZDUSD might look good. Not in front of my computer so cant be sure yet. ?
Both AUD and NZD have more or less swung in huge 500 pip ranges since June vs USD – with both well at the top of those ranges now.
Even as a “range trade” barring any fundamentals it’s pretty low risk here. I’m closely eyeing both. As well GBP/USD is waaaay up there!
So…….we still have the fundamental concern as to “which way next for USD”?
Smoke & Mirrors…… looks like the house of card could be falling? Do we receive a situation where Stocks & the DXY fall in tandem? Where does money flow? crazy times indeed… Debt limit.. FOMC tapering talk… & management of Syria still in the line of sight…. where does one park funds in the meantime? All things to ponder as today & the week come to a close…
It’s funny but with a pile of my trades/timing I HAVE BEEN trading as if DXY and Stocks have been falling together. It doesn’t look like it day to day…but there have been several extended instances where both have fallen together so it’s certainly not out of the question here.
I’m torn. As my “timing band” for USD strength going back like…..forever, had been mid Sept. So….as per plan I’m 100% out – and here I sit as well!
With the last months of liquidity primarily coming out of Japan, I’ve kinda stopped bothering with the U.S “pump job” as any real indication of well….”anything!”. With higher rates , debt ceiling , Syria , whatever else we get here soon….it “would appear” that something has to give here but……here we are fighting the Fed so to speak.
I feel that it will INDEED take some kind of REAL RISK EVENT ” to push this thing off it’s ledge….and will have to “wait and see” as for USD.
Getting short the commod currencies seams a pretty low risk idea here, as they’ve bounced back big time – and have significant fundamental headwinds regardless.