You can get in here and argue your case til the cows come home! – and I honestly hope that you do, as perhaps you’ve some insight / information that can better help me understand.
The U.S data released this morning is absolutely hilarious. Not just “kind of funny” but so absolutely outside the realm of believable that I’m literally “on the floor laughing”.
Let’s see what the markets make of both this “ridiculous GDP number” and the “magical drop” in unemployment.
I’ve only added to USD shorts as well watching Japan continue to slide with long JPY’s starting to take shape.
Short and sweet this morning, as I want to get “back to the circus” as soon as possible.
I’ve not had this much fun in a while!
USD will continue to be sold here.
whipsaw daily on the US mkts… ridiculous data plus ridiculous algos
You know where I’m at as……I usually skip the U.S session, or just get my positions going – and get out of the house.
Any attempt to “actually day trade” forex will be met with frustration and likely losses as it makes absolutely not a difference in the world what a currency pair “does” over a piddly 8 hour period.
It’s essentially just noise, shrt of finding an entry ( on larger times frames ) and sluggin out the short term volatility.
I’ve bagged 97 pips on EUR/USD trade just this a.m ( as per the tweet ) and am will just let the rest of the trades roll well into this evening/check in “Mid Asia” for me around 11 p.m.
hmmm shorted usdjpy.. so far so good..
Yes….EVERYTHING is looking very good on this end.
Employment data is from the wave of seasonal employees, GDP data is from high inventories.
Both are completely ridiculous.
GDP on a given quarter at 3.6%! – on higher inventories?? If that’s not the most ridiculous data point I’ve ever heard.
It makes no difference, as the common retail investor has no clue regardless – but will always look to see things as “looking up”.
I see the market is taking the “up beat data” well.
Read past the headline number. Personal consumption was revised down from 2.0 to 1.9 which is down sequentially. The rest of the gain was private inventory investments. The calculation is what it is.
Ya…frankly I don’t read “into” the numbers coming out of the U.S at all, as I’m long past any consideration of recovery / positive data in any area of the U.S Economy.
2.0 vs 1.9 etc……means absolutely nothing to me, and I can’t imagine to many other people either.
The downward spiral in both U.S Bonds and the Dollar have been strong enough “evidence” for me ” as to what’s to come ” and to continue trading in the right direction. With all the “revisions” of this and that……who can be bothered.
Never trusted government numbers anyway. Nice analysis on usd/jpy.
People often misread this pair as…..these two currency can “both fall” or “both rise” at similar turns in markets so….being “short on” and “long the other” doesn’t always mean “short or long” this pair in particular.
In this case it’s pretty apparent that a weak dollar and strong Yen translates into an obvious move….but I tend to see better moves in pairs “including these currencies” but not always “trading them against one another”.
Posting replies to my own comments….go figure – but I can’t drive my subscribers mad on days like these – posting time and time again so……
If there is anything to take away from today, or the last 4 days since you now believe / follow Japan’s markets as indication of “what’s to come” there in the U.S – we’ve got to put this “money printing” in perspective.
The “back stop” it provides for markets is primarily “psychological” as…..for those “eternal believers in QE” – how can you justify these last few days? With billions being thrown at markets by both the Fed and The Bank of Japan? Literally! Billions up in smoke today alone!
The fact of the matter is…….markets size in general “dwarf” these money printing efforts, and can roll over / crush them in an instant “if” the general investing community pushes “past” the media and the hype. It’s only perception!
85 billion per month from the Fed is a tiny drop in the bucket as”when the bond market” decides rates – AND SELLS! – 85 billion is nothing.
The Fed will “never taper” as they can’t. They will increase QE moving forward. No question as Japan has already SAID it will increase come April.
These markets keep going up as long as people believe that “money printing” will save the economy.
News flash……………….all the printing in the world can’t help what’s happened in the Unites States of America, but only serves to contribute “further” to it’s demise.
Hey Kong, I’ll have to disagree with you here my friend (very rare indeed) – they will taper and it will commence soon. Everything you and my learned fellow readers say is correct, BUT the FED has no choice. Why:
1) Irrespective of your thoughts on the quality of the GDP or NFP numbers, they are still materially better than past months, so whether its QE related or not the US economy is improving and moving towards the FED’s targets
2) The FED now owns approximately 32% of the Bond Market, which is materially impacting treasury yields, and with continuing QE this number will rise. If they don’t exit soon the damage will be too great, both in terms of market liquidity and rates – they are aware of this – the FED’s main purpose in life is price stability, which would be seriously disrupted if QE continues
3) Taper doesn’t mean “end” – they will probably keep a smaller level of stimulus going into 2015 (Yellen’s hand) , perhaps with some selected securities just to show they intend to remain vigilant and engaged
4) The FED voting people change in January (?) with 2 hawks replacing 2 doves – this combined with the improving economy will either cause dissent within the FED if they don’t taper (and hence create major market confusion), or will tip the balance in favour of tapering.
Just my two cents worth – I don’t care either way and will just trade what I see in the price action.
I always love and appreciate your insight Deano – and a difference of opinions is always healthy.
Shit…..I can’t think of a guy I’d like to get out for a beer with more, than a fellow with his own point of view. I think it’s called “respect” and with respect comes friendship.
It’s fun to throw it around, and considering its all “speculation” what the hell right? I’m not one to suggest I’ve got all the answers as I hope to motivate others to draw their own conclusions as well…..
It’s my belief that…..we’ve really just scratched the surface with QE as per the Fed’s balance sheet etc…considering that Japan has been struggling for some 15 years only to be printing more now than ever. The crisis will be in Japan first….and we will essentially get a front row seat as to what to expect in the future for the U.S.
The media is now attempting to educate the American public as to the “difference betweeon tapering and tightening” and actually suggesting that rising interest rates are now to be viewed as “healthy”. COugh…cough..sputter..sputter…….
The American populus can’t even define / outline what “QE” is! let alone what “more or less” / taper/ tighten means to them and their families.
It’s “trod along”, “whatever you say” , pay yer taxes, take it up the a#$S til eternity. Just as the Gov and the Fed wants it to be.
You think the spiral of the education system in the U.S is a chance event? The entire plan depends on people not making a fuss.
The Federal Reserve has the biggest client on Earth in being able to print money and “lend” it to the U.S Government – they will never give that up. Never.
We’re in violent agreement on Japanese QE Kong, they are going slam dunk their way to oblivion using it – I shudder to think what its going to look like in a year or two’s time. That might require a lot of beer to digest.
But I think the US has a different issue, partly because the USD is the reserve currency – while the FED will look after the US economy first and go QE infinity if it could, it also has to consider the global situation, and a number of emerging economies are going to drown unless the USD strengthens from a taper/tightening. Ben’s already been brow beaten by a number of other central wankers about the imbalances and bubbles created, so he won’t want that on his legacy, or the fact the US would have to tip a trillion or two into the IMF to bail out a bunch of failing economies.
Just another reason why taper is coming. Otherwise I’ll defer to your wisdom on the US media and education system, of which do I see another potential bubble forming in the student loan area?
Cool Deano……and so it goes.
We’ll just keep on “keeping on” as will markets , central banks etc…….
As for Ben’s legacy……I’ve already more or less forgotten about him, and really can’t imagine many, “giving a rats ass” a year er two out.
A ghost of markets past.