There is absolutely no “possible way” tomorrow’s second quarter GDP release from the U.S will meet expectations. It’s impossible in any real world terms.
However, considering the “unprecedented times” we find ourselves in as of late ( where employment data is now consistently fudged, housing numbers, PPI, not to mention U.S media coverage of just about everything on Earth ) one has to wonder “just how far they’ll go tomorrow” or if we’ll honestly get a fair kick at the can.
A number under 3% growth would essentially suggest that ( coupled with Q1’s “disaster nose dive” of -2.9% ) The U.S will have generated 2 straight quarters net negative growth – signaling recession.
Recession – a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
Now you’d have to appreciate the significance of this, when you consider 6 straight years of printing money like toilet paper / propping up the largest Ponzi scheme known to man, with a consistant message to “the people” that everything has been moving according to “plan”.
Only to find yourself in recession?
I find it very hard to imagine we’ll get an accurate/legit number but “even still”……anything, and I mean “anything” less that 3 % and Houston?
I think we’ve got a real problem here.
This could very well be the “event” we’ve been looking for to break out of these horrible / dead / ranging / flat currency markets so…traders should “most certainly not” take this one for granted.
try spellcheck … and good luck with that. we know you’ve been consistently right about the Spx for at least the last 200 points *snicker*
Try your best not to get your undies in a knot over the “continued top calling” in SP hey? Coupled with trading in 12- 15 currency pairs, investments in gold / silver and a much longer term trading plan than the last “few points in SP” can effect ( consider the scaled entries in Sept 191 puts now averaged in at 1900, 1956 and maybe even another order today / tomorrow! ) It’s called a “portfolio”.
Trades win. Trades lose. No question there.
I’m sure I’ll make out O.K.
I don’t know how anybody can accurately call a top on SPX. I would agree with Kong though that the fundamentals do not support the continued ascent seen in the charts. Recognizing that the economy and the markets are two different things…the only rational explanation for the unrelenting increase in SPX is there is nowhere else to go for all of the dollars being flooded into the market by central bankers. This would imply a bubble formation and nobody can predict when the bubble deflate. To slam Kong in suggesting that there is a high degree of risk in going long right now seems unfounded to me.
Its simple to see that novice traders / newbies just can’t wrap their heads around the larger picture, still dreaming that “someone out here in Cyperspace” can provide “instant results”.
You’ve got it exactly right as these are cleary “not normal” times / markets – with such Central Bank intervention blurring reality, and killing proper price detection.
Thick skin here as it’s not the first time I’ve had someone suggest my spelling could improve.
oops. nice GDP number.
I agree with that other guy. no one can accurately call a top in the SPX. it is foolish. that’s why it’s so frustrating to see doomers across the blogosphere trying to do just that for months/years. 🙂
Again…..the short sighted “ness”.
It’s no different than you’ll see when things “do turn” and all the “bulls buying dips” just keep going on and on and on while their accounts get smashed. There will always be a large combination of “both views” when markets are scattered / mixed / undecided.
You could blanket statment that “things just keep going up” when only looking at a single asset class or ( especially the bloated SP ) but this is really not the case. Lot’s of bearish currency places have worked out great ( please look at the majority of “falls” in JPY related pairs as an example ) not to mention NZD getting clobbered as well as most recently CAD.
Ya the GDP number – I suppose you believe it too right? So tell us then – how are you trading it? What assets do you currently own? What type of expectation do you have for the next couple of months? What does it even mean to your broad understanding of markets?
In my view…you’re likely sitting just sitting around watching CNBC – playing with demo software.
I dunno why my post got snipped. but I’m long equities, with simple trendlines that once broken, will get me off the train. I don’t watch cnbc, and I’m a young guy, don’t have millions or even hundreds of thousands invested, but I do have a significant amount of $ invested relative to my net worth.
I believe the GDP number, yes. 🙂
Well there you go then….it appears you’ve got things all worked out.
Each to their own.
And I’ll keep an eye on the speliing moving forward. Thank you for the correction.
Interesting how the markets seem to be “loving / believing” the GDP print as well.
Let see…….I think I can spell “newbie” correctly.
Sheesh……try your best to contribute something “constructive” next time cool?
If you look at the detail behind the GDP number 1.7% of the 4% is increased inventories which may dampen the enthusiasm to some extent?
And again…this is the “first estimate” that will in turn be re calculated, then again and again as the typical bullshit drivel of phony U.S data continues to wow the Seattle crowd.
Markets don’t appear to thrilled so…..you go with what you see.