Cut and past from a fellow named Mike Whitney ( thank you very much Mike ) who can be reached at: [email protected] as I could not have possibly explained it better myself.
In Ukraine, the US is using a divide and conquer strategy to pit the EU against trading partner Moscow.
The State Department and CIA helped to topple Ukraine’s elected President Viktor Yanukovych and install a US stooge in Kiev who was ordered to cut off the flow of Russian gas to the EU and lure Putin into a protracted guerilla war in Ukraine.
The bigwigs in Washington figured that, with some provocation, Putin would react the same way he did when Georgia invaded South Ossetia in 2006. But, so far, Putin has resisted the temptation to get involved which is why new puppet president Petro Poroshenko has gone all “Jackie Chan” and stepped up the provocations by pummeling east Ukraine mercilessly. It’s just a way of goading Putin into sending in the tanks.
But here’s the odd part: Washington doesn’t have a back-up plan. It’s obvious by the way Poroshenko keeps doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. That demonstrates that there’s no Plan B. Either Poroshenko lures Putin across the border and into the conflict, or the neocon plan falls apart, which it will if they can’t demonize Putin as a “dangerous aggressor” who can’t be trusted as a business partner.
So all Putin has to do is sit-tight and he wins, mainly because the EU needs Moscow’s gas. If energy supplies are terminated or drastically reduced, prices will rise, the EU will slide back into recession, and Washington will take the blame. So Washington has a very small window to draw Putin into the fray, which is why we should expect another false flag incident on a much larger scale than the fire in Odessa. Washington is going to have to do something really big and make it look like it was Moscow’s doing. Otherwise, their pivot plan is going to hit a brick wall.
“Ukraine’s Parliament adopted .. a bill under which up to 49% of the country’s gas pipeline network could be sold to foreign investors. This could pave the way for US or EU companies, which have eyed Ukrainian gas transportation system over the last months.
Boy, you got to hand it to the Obama throng. They really know how to pick their coup-leaders, don’t they? These puppets have only been in office for a couple months and they’re already giving away the farm.
And, such a deal! US corporations will be able to buy up nearly half of a pipeline that moves 60 percent of the gas that flows from Russia to Europe. That’s what you call a tollbooth, my friend; and US companies will be in just the right spot to gouge Moscow for every drop of natural gas that transits those pipelines. And gouge they will too, you can bet on it.
Is that why the State Department cooked up this loony putsch, so their fatcat, freeloading friends could rake in more dough?
This also explains why the Obama crowd is trying to torpedo Russia’s other big pipeline project called Southstream. Southstream is a good deal for Europe and Russia.
On the one hand, it would greatly enhance the EU’s energy security, and on the other, it will provide needed revenues for Russia so they can continue to modernize, upgrade their dilapidated infrastructure, and improve standards of living. But “the proposed pipeline (which) would snake about 2,400 kilometers, or roughly 1,500 miles, from southern Russia via the Black Sea to Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary and ultimately Austria. (and) could handle about 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year, enough to allow Russian exports to Europe to largely bypass Ukraine” (New York Times) The proposed pipeline further undermines Washington’s pivot strategy, so Obama, the State Department and powerful US senators (Ron Johnson, John McCain, and Chris Murphy) are doing everything in their power to torpedo the project.
“What gives Vladimir Putin his power and control is his oil and gas reserves and West and Eastern Europe’s dependence on them,” Senator Johnson said in an interview. “We need to break up his stranglehold on energy supplies. We need to bust up that monopoly.” (New York Times)
What a bunch of baloney. Putin doesn’t have a monopoly on gas. Russia only provides 30 percent of the gas the EU uses every year. And Putin isn’t blackmailing anyone either. Countries in the EU can either buy Russian gas or not buy it. It’s up to them. No one has a gun to their heads. And Gazprom’s prices are competitive too, sometimes well-below market rates which has been the case for Ukraine for years, until crackpot politicians started sticking their thumb in Putin’s eye at every opportunity; until they decided that that they didn’t have to pay their bills anymore because, well, because Washington told them not to pay their bills. That’s why.
Ukraine is in the mess it’s in today for one reason, because they decided to follow Washington’s advice and shoot themselves in both feet. Their leaders thought that was a good idea. So now the country is broken, penniless and riven by social unrest. Regrettably, there’s no cure for stupidity.
The neocon geniuses apparently believe that if they sabotage Southstream and nail down 49 percent ownership of Ukraine’s pipeline infrastructure, then the vast majority of Russian gas will have to flow through Ukrainian pipelines. They think that this will give them greater control over Moscow. But there’s a glitch to this plan which analyst Jeffrey Mankoff pointed out in an article titled “Can Ukraine Use Its Gas Pipelines to Threaten Russia?”. Here’s what he said:
“The biggest problem with this approach is a cut in gas supplies creates real risks for the European economy… In fact, Kyiv’s efforts to siphon off Russian gas destined to Europe to offset the impact of a Russian cutoff in January 2009 provide a window onto why manipulating gas supplies is a risky strategy for Ukraine. Moscow responded to the siphoning by halting all gas sales through Ukraine for a couple of weeks, leaving much of eastern and southern Europe literally out in the cold. European leaders reacted angrily, blaming both Moscow and Kyiv for the disruption and demanding that they sort out their problems. While the EU response would likely be somewhat more sympathetic to Ukraine today, Kyiv’s very vulnerability and need for outside financial support makes incurring European anger by manipulating gas supplies very risky.
The funny thing about gas is that, when you stop paying the bills, they turn the heat off. Is that hard to understand?
So, yes, the State Department crystal-gazers and their corporate-racketeer friends might think they have Putin by the shorthairs by buying up Ukraine’s pipelines, but the guy who owns the gas (Gazprom) is still in the drivers seat. And he’s going to do what’s in the best interests of himself and his shareholders. Someone should explain to John Kerry that that’s just how capitalism works.
Washington’s policy in Ukraine is such a mess, it really makes one wonder about the competence of the people who come up with these wacko ideas. Did the brainiacs who concocted this plan really think they’d be able to set up camp between two major trading partners, turn off the gas, reduce a vital transit country into an Iraq-type basketcase, and start calling the shots for everyone in the region?
Europe and Russia are a perfect fit. Europe needs gas to heat its homes and run its machinery. Russia has gas to sell and needs the money to strengthen its economy. It’s a win-win situation. What Europe and Russia don’t need is the United States. In fact, the US is the problem. As long as US meddling persists, there’s going to be social unrest, division, and war. It’s that simple. So the goal should be to undermine Washington’s ability to conduct these destabilizing operations and force US policymakers to mind their own freaking business. That means there should be a concerted effort to abandon the dollar, ditch US Treasuries, jettison the petrodollar system, and force the US to become a responsible citizen that complies with International law.
This in an absolutely “perfect synopsis” of events currently unfolding in Ukraine….and you’ll have to appreciate the irony with respect to the “false flag” and the mysterious “Malaysian Jetliner now “downed” in Eastern Ukraine”…….a coincidence? A chance event?
I hardly think so.
Go Obama go – you moron!
Absolutely love these kind of posts. Great read, thanks for the input.
Cool man….me too.
This is the kinda stuff I like tieing in with Forex as…..most of these geo political events are so directly linked to The U.S need to keep hold of the Petro Dollar and the Worlds’ Reserve Currency.
Most people would generally gloss over the news and take it at face value but……
It’s all really just about The U.S need to keep hold of their global ponzi scheme in being able to print dollars and “export” the problem.
The world has grown tired of it….hence the “desperation” we see here in The U.S doing everything it can to provoke Russia and find a “justifiable reason” to move into the area.
Russia won’t have it. China won’t stand for it this time either so……the times they are a changin.
How can the equity markets just brush this off like nothing happened?
Also, I would expect a drop on the AUD as its a risk currency. Risk off? Nope.
I was expecting a flight to safety in the Yen. Nope.
I dont get it. Not only the shooting down of MH17 but also ground forces entering Palestine hardy makes a difference to the markets.
Whats it going to take to end (or at least stall) the bull rally in stocks? They didnt even blink.
I couldn’t agree more – this has gone “past ridiculous” with world events / global risk having “seemingling no effect” on U.S Equities.
AUD continues to “wash traders out” day in – day out…..with 70 pip move straight down…then 75 pips straight up. The trade conditions are impossible, and The Central Banks are putting the run on the last of the speculators, making anything bearish “seem impossible”.
Yesterday was a significant break though…and today’s “rebound” expected. Getting more than a single day “in a row” these days is tough.
Damage has been done…..we’ll get a correction but I can’t imagine it will be easily identified / easy to trade.
I apologise. Its been 24 hours since this happened and I my post was flippant in its manor regarding this abhorrent tragedy.
My condolences to the families involved.
The downing of the airliner yesterday was definitely a “false flag”. The reason I believe this is the fact that there was a camera facing and running right in time to see the first fireball from the explosion of the plane hitting the ground. Now why would a random person be filming this ? Also, the system they say is responsible is Russian made, they also stated that the rebels would not have the technical ability to use it. So, that tells me our CIA has been active.
As I understand it – any missles the “Russian rebels may have” – couldn’t even come close to reaching the height / distance needed.
This is so obviously more U.S tinkering as per the article / post.
Unreal what these people are capable of.
Sounds to me like you would have preferred communism. You want dictators? You don’t like the current world scenario? Maybe you would like to speak Russian? The propaganda machine is alive and well, and you chose the anti-USA mantra. As a capitalist yourself, you must feel like a chicken shit, enjoying the freedoms available in the world, and then sit back and chose the mantra that titillates you, you fuckin’ canuck American hater.
Ya there are no millionaires in Russia hey…..no opportunity over there at all. Just poor people eating potatoes.
No American companies “chomping at the bit” to get in / seize resources / start up biz either..nope – just “good ol communism” everywhere you look.
Gimme a break…..you want to open your eyes to the “world view”? ( assuming maybe you’re American? )
Take a look out your kitchen window….just watch for drones, and don’t trip over that broken down sidewalk that will never be repaired on your way to pick up your unemployment cheque.
Kong….how does this type of event affect your analysis of forex markets? Over the next couple of weeks to months how would you assess the EUR/US pair? Can these markets even been analyzed? I lean towards risk off…equities grinding higher….US dollar weakening versus Euro? Until tapering is complete there is too much liquidity in the market?
Nice work on “your own analysis” in a forex market completely “squashed” of volatility and direction.
I to see USD turning lower here, so obviously EUR/USD moving higher…but putting a time stamp on it these days is tricky.
I too am leaning “risk off” with a greater focus on YEN pairs seeing the obvious “yen strength” on Equities weakness.
This is mind blowing! Look what happened since: Russia struck a deal with Turkey to buy pass not only Ukraine, but the Southstream as well and almost immediately the Congress passed the Ukrainian Freedom Act. Mr. McCain is really eager to ride that pipe. American tax payers are supposed to pay some $350 mio for what Mr. McCain wants, sweet. Now that’s Xmas spirit!