The U.S Dollar as well as U.S equities have failed to breach the highs from Fridays “Sell Risk” post.
Equity markets look to be rolling over here “again” at the 2040-2060 level, while USD takes out the last of the smaller traders.
One can assume that things are now “hanging in the balance” with respect to an outcome with the current “Greece situation” but in all….I really don’t think it matters.
The markets move on much larger time frames, and whatever is to become of Greece ( all will turn out fine in my view ) will just be another silly headline geared to moving the masses.
Greece is not leaving the EU Zone. It will continue to “hang in there” as well continue to keep you up at night – if you let it.
Countdown till the “real action” starts, as we are flat as a pancake “yet again”.
**FEBRUARY 12TH UPDATE – ALL TRADES HAVE NOW BEEN INITIATED!! PLEASE FOLLOW IN THE MEMBERS AREA:
I’m afraid the markets want to go up and will do so! This is complete madness! But that’s how it might be!
Completely agree with you there.
Markets ripping this morning on Ukraine peace deal. Yet markets were never down on Ukraine conflict or Greece or Oil or any other matter. All good news is an excuse to rally hard and all bad news is an excuse to just rally.
JPY this morning said QE wasn’t working and look at usdjpy fall. Yet the fact no additional QE will be coming from Japan has been completely ignored by risk which is now celebrating the peace in Ukraine. If Greece reaches a compromise, another rally to ensue. Usually such a fall in usdjpy would be seen as risk off but for now, markets completely ignoring.
This person has no records of ever being a profitable. Refuses to trade live and show a P&L. Beware and follow at your own risk.
It’s a blog – please try to get a grip.
And hey let me ask you…….does your local “licensed broker” or bank “investment advisor” provide some kind of “proven track record”?
Again….it’s a public blog on the Internet guy – try to keep things in perspective.
My sentiments exactly.
Just a blog where it’s refreshing to see someone else’s point of view, far from the B***S*** espoused by MSM. Last night, a CNBC statement, “Greece deal reached” causing markets to rally only for it to be revealed 10 minutes later that no deal had been reached at all.
I do not trade based upon Kong, but at least he answers his blogs without having an ulterior objective. As I said, always great to see things from someone else’s point of view.
YTD 27% profit. But I don’t trade FX, don’t short and seldom trade at all. I’m more an investor type of guy trying to catch the cycles/waves. Very hard these days as central banks have such a massive influence. CBs will lose all their credibility. But I’m afraid it will take a long time.
Regarding your comment: Don’t be too biased. It’ll kill you one day.
**FEBRUARY 12TH UPDATE – ALL TRADES HAVE NOW BEEN INITIATED!!
Kong, you are THE ape!!! 😉
It’s been a real grind with markets trading sideways in such a wide range these past months but…..
This should do it for USD here and now – looking for a move several “hundreds of pips” lower.
Equities just refused to go risk off even though USD is falling apart.. the corelation between usdjpy and equities seems broken too..
You guys need to stop looking at “every single day” expecting to see the usual correlations play out on a dime.
This market is a meat grinder right now as there is no question about it “people don’t know what the hell to think”.
It’s confused, tired, and 100% totally rigged to boot so…..we’ve got “many many factors” all coming into play at once.
My general feelings are that we are on the last leg of it, and the USD turn “should” mark the start of a larger correction lower in equities as well.
You can see JPY looking strong and USD looking weak. This is a bad combo for both Japanese as well U.S equities so….try your best to be patient.
The madness goes on. Higher high in the S&P! Momentum traders will drive this even higher.
A close over 18k on the Dow could bring us to all new highs next week. S&P likely to crack 2100. The bull looks to live on!
Pretty wild looking at USD now topping out, JPY bottoming and both Japanese and U.S Equities pushing the highs.
Hmmmmm…..which one of these things does not belong…..
Time for the FED to hike rates and pop that crazy stock market bubble!
Ya..looking at it again…and again then again – it’s very difficult to imagine The FED “ever” raising rates on it’s own free will.
But if one looks at TLT and envisions that it’s topped then…..the bond market will just do it anyway!
The Fed is powerless if indeed the bond market decides to sell hard.
“….The Fed is powerless if indeed the bond market decides to sell hard.”
I disagree. You are dealing with a bunch of people at the Fed who will never admit error, and will do anything to mask it. They have expanded their balance sheet to what, 4 or 5 trillion already? What is another 4 or 5 trillion to them? They will buy every bond in creation if they are forced to just to maintain their ZIRP posture, and make it look correct. In other words, they will break out vast quantities of new QE. Also, look at that mysterious European entity that has suddenly, and mysteriously, popped up as a massive new holder of US treasuries, right as the official QE ended! Coincidence that that mystery entity magically holds nearly the exact amount of that continued QE would have bought? They will never be out of tricks.
Is some of your dollar bear positioning based on the belief that the Fed will never raise rates, and that they want to ‘trash’ the dollar a bit? I think the Fed will NEVER raise rates. I think they are too scared, and too beholden to politicians now to ever consider a rate rise. I know I am in the minority with that view, but I truly believe there is no way out of ZIRP for them. If, however, you do believe rates will be raised, how do you square that with dollar bearishness? Thanks.
Hi Ed. Great take on things.
Eventually “something” will go down in the bond markets, that ( in my view ) will crush The Fed like the insect that it is but, I agree 100% – it will take an aweful lot. I also see that more QE is on the way.
But here we are where “timing” comes into play. I can see USD weakness pulling back down over the next few months – that’s plenty of time for me to trade without getting caught up in the tiny squiggles.
It’s “possible” that USD bottoms out some time near the end of March on “new talks” of even the “tiniest rate hike” – even though it will still likely be “just talk”, or perhaps such a small “nominal increase” just to satisfy public pressure.
Kong do you have specific entry and exits along with a verifiable track record before i join? Or maybe you are just a guy demo trading in your moms basement.
He he he….I like you.
No I don’t trade out of my moms basement, but I don’t offer a “trade system” either.
I post my trades, I post / review plans for the week and I discuss / trade live during the days.
This market will go higher and finally end worse than the dot com bubble!
After the dramatic post, “Sell Risk – Right Here – Right Now”, what’s your take now?
Zero fear as I keep mentioning. Even going in to the long weekend, US indices finished near week highs indicating they had nothing to fear as EU QE would more than compensate for any Grexit fallout and that CB’s will intervene should things get real serious.
Look at how easily usdjpy rallied today and how quickly oil came back from it’s daily low. Also how quickly stock markets came back up from their daily lows. Not signs that market is ready to roll over. Is there knowledge that CB’s are secretly working behind the scenes to bail out any banks that are adversely affected by any Greek fall out (probably)!!!
The catalyst for risk off ie. debt and jpy strength, these are non events for the foreseeable future.
Even a 10% fall in US equities form current levels wouldn’t take out the October lows which is very ominous for the bears going forward. Only hope for bears now is that Greece does exit and the fallout is far greater than anyone expects. At present, no fundamentals matter so we could well see US equity markets rally 10% with only a minor pull back. If Greece reaches a compromise, could see 3% right there.
looks like risk on all over again.. USD just refused to roll over and seem to be making a triangle… US mkts are all at ATHs..
Currencies tell a different tale, as U.S as well Japanese equities continue to march to the beat of their own drummer.
I would consider anyone “buying risk” here to be 100% completely out of their minds.
Proced with extreme caution.
The european equities are also marching on their own to new highs despite greece or ukraine..even the usual decline in usdjpy is not effecting equities, but equities follow it up whenever it goes up! Today BOJ has stated that they will continue easing till end of time (means last week rumours were fake?) and ECB is about to start QE in 2 weeks time. Notice how whenever the mkts are about to break a key level down, it is saved again!
Oh yes I see it…..the CB’s are hard at work no question.
This begs the question….
If everything is so great ( as the average person is lead to believe by way of higher stock market prices ) then why is Japan to continue easing forever? Why is The ECB now “starting” QE?
It’s a shell game here, geared to keep as many “dummies” believing in the stock market and believing that “everything is fine”.
Trade wise……sure if you’ve soley been trading equities who can argue ( if of course you’ve survived the last 3 months worth of range / volatility ) – you will have done well “if” and I do say “IF” you are also looking to “sell at th highs” and keep those profits.
Few will do it. Few have likely even survived the past 3 months.