You can remain focused on the “distractions” as Greece continues to take the headlines, or you can pull your head out of the sand and wake the f%k up.
USD is “make it or beak it here” so trades are locked and loaded….but I don’t pull triggers on Fridays.
Snippet from the members section:
We’d really be picking bottoms here as it’s “still” too early .
Looking at a 5 minute chart of GBP/USD you’ll want to “at the bare minimum” see the 5 minute chart CLEARLY TRENDING UPWARD so….pull out to see att least a full 5-7 days of trading and plot the 200SMA to start.
You’ll want to see this turn “upward” regardless of the actual price level before entering.
Sure the level looks great “now” but from a safety perspective – let it start making “higher highs and higher lows” on this tiny time frame to even consider entry.
As it stands…the 5 min has yet to turn upward so…..consider how small / micro we are looking now.
I would rather see the 15 min “as well” th 1H trending higher before entry but…..we are getting very close to a point where “legging in” makes sense.
This can be reflected/applied against any USD related pair here, as we “hang” on the cusp of trend change.
Imagine hitting it on a 15 min time frame as still being “sooooo early” right?
No reason to enter here before the weekend. We’ll miss nothing.
Are you trading forex yet? Or are you getting completely smashed trying?
Agree. Selling $/Y and buying gold and will continue to do so if it goes against me
Hi Pot Stock Watch, love your views and am interested to sign up. But rereading a little of your old stuff for the last few years, it seems you can’t get away from being a USD or a stock market bear, (granted taking your record at face value, you’ve done a good job regardless that both have strengthened), and you seem to hold that view regardless (like Jim Rogers, a permanent commodity bull who won’t change his mind regardless if commods are getting smashed). What would your thoughts be about my observation? I just want to trade with someone flexible who goes with the flow so to speak, and who delivers great risk/reward trades. Also, since I would only like to sign up with the best, any chance of breaking down your old profit/loss, # trades, etc for the past few years? It helps to know what one is getting into before signing up.
Sorry moggom – for the delayed response.
Kong is a bit more of a “cult following” at this point as…..I’m not cracking ol spreadsheets to justify my trading. There is lots to learn, and we often trade both sides of the fence regardless of the longer term “macro view”.
For a buck a day you could just as easily go buy a chocolate bar ( no wait…..I think they are now 1.60! ). I won’t “sell u”.
Kong is something to add to your toolkit, but he’s not bending over for it.
Hi Pot Stock Watch,
Like your blog and trades and am interested to sign up to your reports, just wanted to ask,
I’ve been reading some of your older stuff and have noticed that you seem to always be a USD/Stock market bear, regardless of how the price action has been going (e.g. like Jim Rogers, who is permanently a commodity bull, even if commodities are getting smashed). That being said, I admire that you are still taking profits out of the market which shows you must have great risk reward trades going on. As you know, stocks have been a one way street higher, and most recently USD rallied against everything e.g. USDJPY 14 year highs, NZDUSD lows, EUR, etc, meaning you’ve been holding your views against markets which don’t tend to agree.
Wondering, what would your thoughts be on my observation? I just want to trade and learn from the best, from someone flexible who goes with the flow and delivers good risk reward trades, perhaps on both sides. I don’t really want to be trapped thinking about the same view all the time if it isn’t playing out.
Also, would you feel comfortable about sharing your historical trading record before I sign up (perhaps via email?). It would be great knowing what I am signing up for.
thanks very much!
USD/JPY at 124.85… I’m in with my shorts starting now. Will add up to 125.60’s and close them all close to 122 (old resistance which should now act as support).
What’s your reason for shorting usd/jpy?
At present there is way too much yield advantage in USD favour, fundamentally JPY is weak and technically momentum is now building in weakening JPY even further.
This could easily go to 130.00. Even jaw boning by the BOJ won’t have an effect.
Dow and S&P holding above 18000 and 2100 despite attempts to take it down so no fear of risk off in US equities.
How do you see “risk on”?
These markets are at the exact same levels as back in March, and only a couple days ago the same levels as December of last year??
This market has not budged an inch in over half a year…how is that RISK ON?
Risk on in terms of global stocks and the inability of either Dow or S&P to break the aforementioned levels despite all the political and geo-political news.
Despite bonds selling off in US and Europe today, look at equities. Look at JPY against various currencies EUR, CAD, AUD etc today.
When markets can’t even fall 1% and stays where they are, which for many stocks are in a bull market, then that is Risk On.
Until we see serious risk off, the prevalent trend remains true and at present, the prevalent trend, even though it may not be moving higher, is up. hence, Risk On.
Look at USDJPY, 13 year high.
If we had even an inclination of Risk Off, why is USDJPY at a 12/13 year high and threatening to move even higher? There is no risk off.
So Madness…..How do you think David is making out with his entry short USD/JPY?
Not to shabby I’d say…..and it brings up an important point.
It doesn’t really matter which way you ride the merry ground – if you know ?where/when to get off.
Take your trades where you see fit. Everyone can win. There is no “right or wrong”.
Can you please tell me where I told David he was wrong and why he shouldn’t be selling?
If you read my comment, I wasn’t suggesting he shouldn’t be short USDJPy was I? I was simply questioning the reasoning. Anyway a few days ago it reached a high of 125.04 and as at time of writing it is 123.82, a mere 100 pips or so down. Where was it as at end of October 2014? 112.35? So how can you say usdjpy is in a bear trend in any form or manner? Or are you trying to call a top again?
FYI: I could let you know I have been long USDJPY since since it breached 115.00. Would you say I was doing badly on this JPY weakness? I can also say I have been long CADJPY since 92.00, would you say I am doing badly on this long CADJPY too? Far more substantial and “safer” monies to be had going with the trend than not.
You always seem to suggest trading short-term is not for you and that you like to pick up on the longer trends. Yet now you are gloating when a short-term trade goes for you? Surely my longer trend JPY trades have truly encompassed the sort of major move you always look for and thus are far more successful?
Im only pointing out that “he may have his reasons” and you of course have yours. I have mine etc…
The reason for getting short USD has been setting up here ( as per the charts / expectations ) perfectly for weeks! This IS a longer term trade, but when the short term entry fires up as well – that’ all good in my books.
You’r bullish Madness. I’m not. Its a flat trading environment “until it isn’t” right?
I like USD down as a direction here.Apparently you don’t.
Go man go. Everybody can win.
And in order to potentially learn, I merely asked what his reasons were – nothing wrong with that. I wasn’t implying he was wrong, I simply asked to ask for his reasoning so I could potentially learn something.
On the contrary, I am long term bearish and if you read all my past comments, you will see this is the case. However I do not look to be tied down to any trade and if the market are going up, then I trade it with appropriate lot size and risk management.
Just look at today’s market action. Lots of bearish macro news in US, US and Bund yields rising up again, Draghi saying to expect more volatility. Despite all this, what are the equity markets doing? Up near all time highs.
Look at JPY today. With USD it is one of the weakest currencies today. Classic Risk on with two carry currencies at the bottom of the currency meter.
Yes, one day all this will fall (hopefully soon). But there are many who have been calling for this for over a year now. If they are not losing money then they certainly losing their mental health in the frustration that they are feeling when so much bad news is simply ignored.
I have taken short positions on Dow today, currently down 30 pips or so. As per usual, my bear trades are more heavily in terms of lot size – let’s see how they pan out.
Great work Madness….it’s all “discussion” here so just keep on rockin!
Each and every day….a million different traders do what they can to “apply what they think they know” to trading. Each and every day some of them win, some of them lose.
Round n round it goes!