USD Update – Failed Daily Cycle

The U.S Dollar has now breached the low from the previous daily cycle….confirming that this “next cycle” will also manifest as a “left translated cycle” and take the dollar decidedly lower.

But first we bounce.

We bounce higher in a confirmed downtrend so…you don’t go buying this dip in USD bonehead. You wait 4-6 days ( 6 at most I imagine ) and “sell the rip” as we are in a downtrend. Patience is everything when trading, as you’ve got to fight that “urge” to get in there…and be involved every minute of the day.

I can honestly say that these days ( having long since been through the emotional torment experienced when learning ) I spent more like 85% of my time plotting / scheming / observing markets than I do “actually trading”.

Magically…..the less I trade – the more money I make…but don’t confuse this with “investing”. Yes I believe that gold and silver have bottomed, the Euro will rise and USD will fall…JPY will surge and U.S equities will soon take a substantial hit so….

Investing is 100% totally / absolutely / without question OUT!  I trade…..and I trade assets I believe to be in longer term trends. I don’t consider it investing.

Most of the standard correlations are looking pretty good right now ie…USD down has The Euro and commodities ( priced in USD ) moving higher…and The Japanese Yen flying cuz money borrowed some years ago is now repatriating to the place of its origin. Yen up = U.S equities down.

The fact that this thing has traded sideways for this long must have many of you looking at your portfolios and wondering – why haven’t I done so well this past year?

How much “higher” can you really expect anything to climb in the face of a dramatically waning “appetite for risk”.

The planet is completely freaked out about Trump. Good or bad….I have no opinion, but I can tell you this….markets hate uncertainty, and the future looks “more than uncertain” to say the least.

Wouldn’t you agree?

13 Responses

  1. Mats Bergquist February 7, 2017 / 4:35 pm

    Hi Kong,

    yes the USD has risen….but so have silver and gold also. Will there really be a setback for gold/silver so we can go long at a nice price level?

    • Pot Stock Watch February 7, 2017 / 8:30 pm

      There always is!

      To bad I left a bit on the table this time but so it goes…

      I assume pullback starts now///so I can only hope its a big one!

  2. McAttack77 February 9, 2017 / 1:51 pm

    Do you ever trade JDST on pull backs?

      • Pot Stock Watch February 9, 2017 / 3:21 pm

        I would YES…but not during a large scale turn like this…

        \I would not trade Bearish ETF’s when such a solid up trend has clearly been established/

    • Pot Stock Watch February 10, 2017 / 3:24 am


      I buy “pullbacks in up trends”.

  3. McAttack77 February 10, 2017 / 2:04 pm

    How do you feel about selling cash covered puts out of the money while you wait for such a pull back? A decent way to make money while waiting for the pull back to come for you. Thought

    • McAttack77 February 10, 2017 / 2:11 pm

      How do you feel about selling cash covered puts out of the money while you wait for such a pull back? A decent way to make money while waiting for the pull back to come to you. Thoughts?

      • Pot Stock Watch February 10, 2017 / 4:01 pm

        Way to complicated…too many variables…. and the time factor when trading options kicks your ass..

        Sounds like you’ve got your head screwed on right / knowledge of these assets is good but..too risky when facing such a strong uptrend in gold/silver. You wont get enough out of this trade…and you will need to have incredible timing.

        I HAVE incredible timing…..and don’t see enough rm here to get short Gold.

        • McAttack77 February 10, 2017 / 4:13 pm

          I completely agree with you on the timing aspect, but I’m referring to selling cash covered puts (obligation to buy at a lower strike price as miners come back to a level you want to initiate a new long). The short option position has time premium working in your favor while you wait to initiate your new long position. If miners fall and your put ends up being in the money, you are physically “put the shares” and you are forced to initiate your long position(which you want to do anyway). At the same time, you can scale in the rest of your dry powder and buy more miners to further bolster your long miners position(which you would have done anyway).

          On the flip side, if the miners don’t pull back within your option expiration time frame, you simply pocket the premium. Rinse and repeat until you get the meaningful pullback you are looking for. This way you aren’t left with nothing if miners take off from here.

          On a side note, very interesting gold is holding in strong here with DXY marginally up 20bps. Silver is actually up 1%…

          • Pot Stock Watch February 11, 2017 / 10:04 pm

            I can so appreciate your knowledge of this ( options trading in general ) but it’s something I left behind many years ago as…’s a racket man.

            Options are great if/when you time shit to the second..otherwise…..I get far better value out of straight up forex trading….and the occasional stock buy when a solid trend has been established.

            Good luck with it though man….if you can slug it out n the options market and make a good buck? Go man go!

          • Tim Sosnofff February 16, 2017 / 4:11 am

            You just described what I’m doing, except I play both side of the fence and sell Calls on my Longs to capture the upside equity move …. limited yes, but its the kicker you are looking for while I sell Puts on the downside waiting for a pull back.
            Trick is to finding the correct underlying with just the right price and the right volume on a daily basis, I’m happy so far with what I found.

          • Pot Stock Watch February 16, 2017 / 5:25 am

            nice work Tim….if you can make it in the options market….my hat goes off to you!

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