Was That It For AUD? – Looks That Way

As you all know I tend to be a little early with some of my market observations / calls.

After studying these charts for as many hours / days / years as I – you start to see things a bit differently. As many of you are likely “just now” getting familiar with commonly occurring patterns and price levels, and starting to fit some larger “macro analysis” into ¬†your daily trading, I tend to see things the same things playing out – over and over again.

We’ve hit the “resistance zone” I suggested yesterday in the Nikkei, as well I see a “swing forming” around 1680 on the SP 500 futures, coupled with a tad bit of Yen strength and a continued weak USD.

Let’s throw in a generally weak AUD as well NZD ( the New Zealand Dollar) and what have we got? Just another “up/down churn day” or perhaps the start of something more?

I’d considered some time ago that any strength in AUD would be short-lived, and I now see that this could be about it – or at least a reasonable level to look for a trade.

Keep an eye on AUD through today and tomorrow for further signs of risk coming off.

17 Responses

  1. Warren September 11, 2013 / 10:08 am

    Go insanity trade! I’ve got breakout(down) orders on aud/USD and nzd/USD. Already started a small Eur/aud long and will add on strength.
    Thanks so much for the increase in posts Kong!

    • Pot Stock Watch September 11, 2013 / 10:31 am

      Hell ya Insanity trade!

      Thanks Warren – I’m crankin at it these days.

      Feel free to run some radio spots / paint some park benches in your area! he he he…..

      • Warren September 11, 2013 / 11:30 am

        Jaja, pues las advertencias necesitan a ser en espanol porque vivo en Chile. Puedo ver una plancha con un gorila muy enojado y grande!! LOL

        • Pot Stock Watch September 11, 2013 / 11:41 am

          Super divertido Warren!

          puedo ver ahora….un gorila en Chile! Que bien!

  2. Umar Bhatti (@kamukak) September 11, 2013 / 2:42 pm

    Hey There, any thoughts on gbpusd pair, going non stop seems like on steroids

    • Pot Stock Watch September 11, 2013 / 2:56 pm

      Not much a guy can say here……big time GBP buying coupled with weakness in USD = BOOM!

      GBP strong across the board. I’ve no positions.

      It’s obviously way overbought here “technically” and likely to take a breather. I wouldn’t be chasing it here. We’re on a big turn, and Forex flows are all over the place. Depending on the pair you could do well. As per a fellow reader looking at GBP/AUD for example.

      If you’re already caught short GBP/USD well…….that’s another story.

  3. David September 11, 2013 / 3:31 pm

    In reference to GBP strength: Aside from the positive news coming out of the UK, I think some of the strength could be due to the Vodaphone deal. Supposedly, it’s worth USD 130 bln and has likely been having a positive impact on the Pound. I think the Pound will retrace soon and I like the GBP/JPY short the most right here. I’m also long GBP/AUD (more for AUD weakness than GBP strength, as this cross is mostly affected by AUD moves anyway).

    • Pot Stock Watch September 11, 2013 / 3:59 pm

      Great insight David – thanks for the post here.

      You bet. She’s a touch extended here for sure….whata goliath of a pair that GBP/JPY.

  4. devilyell September 11, 2013 / 4:02 pm

    Thanks K.

    I admit I’m still perplexed about the impact of macro fundies on intraday trading. Swings and Longer Term are very often “fundie based”, even I can see that.

    The intraday action almost always appears to be smart money pushing around small, dumb money, like me. I learned to beat that but I paid dearly for the education.

    I think Taylor, Wychoff, Edwards & McGee, et al really nailed it and that goes back to when JC was in diapers.

    Thanks all for the great comments and info I always find here.

    • Pot Stock Watch September 11, 2013 / 4:12 pm

      If it’s any help – I find that the long term “macro fundies” do for my trading one important thing that no technical indicator can.

      They instill confidence in my positions. Confidence in not getting “pushed around” by a couple pips here and there knowing full well it’s just intraday short term noise.

      Great example – the last few “weeks” being short USD/CAD. If we get back to my original entry date / price….it took 12 days for price to move more than 150 pips in my direction. Did I get churned? Did I flip out with 50 pips against me? Did I “sell” with profits of only 25 pips?

      Nope. I added. I built on it.

      Fundies baby…..I had several other pairs to pull profits day to day, some immediately , others taking weeks….but with no firm grip on fundamental drivers etc – a guy could have easily been wiped on any number of trades just lookin at the day to day stuff.

      Thats me anyway. I don’t see intra day moves as anything other than snow on a TV screen with no cable.

      • JSkogs September 11, 2013 / 7:12 pm

        Watching the Nikkei…AGAIN! Haha. Tonight is the night. I feel it in me bones

        • Pot Stock Watch September 11, 2013 / 7:17 pm

          Yes well…….here we are again eh?

          Tomorrow being Thursday and for the most part another entire week gone by with little to nothing happening ( short of some nice wins short USD ) until then. Frankly, with the massive liquidity pump still in full effect – this has gone past “ridiculous”.

          Fed “taper bullshit” still a full week out so……this could just as easily hang here til then. Groan.

      • JSkogs September 11, 2013 / 7:13 pm

        NZDJPY has probably hit a pretty decent spot for a short just now. Or a small add

        • Pot Stock Watch September 11, 2013 / 7:25 pm

          News out of NZ has really given it a push, wow…….I’ll fade this given a touch more evidence. I’d like to see Nikkei “swing high” here on the daily.

      • devilyell September 11, 2013 / 8:54 pm

        Excellent Kong!

        That puts it perfectly in perspective. It reinforces the need to manage $ and size to not be shaken out of a winner.
        I shoulda asked soon.

        Thanks.

        • Pot Stock Watch September 11, 2013 / 9:17 pm

          With this in mind, perhaps you can further appreciate the strategy of placing “smaller orders over time” – as these things take weeks to play out.

          All the while, tiny mice chasing crumbs – getting caught in traps.

  5. JSkogs September 11, 2013 / 9:26 pm

    Happy to see a decent fade of the news pop on nzdjpy.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *