It never hurts to consider the “what if’s” – right?
Playing the devil’s advocate here, I fully understand the complete and total “retail euphoria” currently playing out in markets. Don’t get me wrong either….I’ve missed a couple trades here and there. Fair enough.
Stepping back and taking a wider view…the SP 500 hasn’t “really” gone anywhere for a full month ( some 20 odd trading days ) as much as the general media hype would still have you think you’ve missed the boat.
“This” isn’t exactly what I call missing a large scale move:
Now the “what if”.
You all know I watch the Japanese Nikkei much closer than I generally do the SP so….
The weekly Nikkei is still suggestive of a considerable pullback on the horizon OR…..(and this is still quite possible) a major top / market reversal spanning several weeks.
There is tonnes of room below – on route towards both the 50 day MA as well the 200 ( and we all know I love that 200! ) but more than that…..the previous high back there in Nov/Dec has yet again proven to be a very strong area of resistance.
What if……the Nikkei does still lead? What if….this retail “blow up” turns dramatically dark / sinister on some kind of “nuke news” out of Korea? What if your newly financed car ends up back on the lot since you recently dumped your life savings into the market?
Personally…..and I’ll say it again….I don’t like it.
I’m looking for a good reason to jump off the fence so….. your comments and opinions more than welcome.
If it’s all just rainbows and butterflies…..why am I not buying stocks?