Are you at least “a little bit” concerned yet?
You should be.
Oil tanking – wreaking havoc across global markets as investors also come to terms with the reality that The ECB’s QE Program is a complete and total dud.
We knew this. It’s not at all a surprise that markets are falling. No surprise at all.
The question begs….do you really think there is sufficient upside left ( perhaps one more “nominal new high”? ) before this thing comes home to roost?
Would it really be worth it to “just hold on” another week / month to see if you seriously squeeze “anything more” out of a market that has gone straight up for essentially 6 years straight?
Madness. Greed and more madness.
When someone suggests that it might be a good idea to “at least” take a little bit off the table considering the run you’ve had….6 years running….you really think you’re gonna see anything more in the way of profits?
Oil will never “ever” see a hundred dollars a barrel again – as global demand ( a product of slowing economic growth ) continues to fall.
Ring the bell on some winners….keep building / holding on to those gold / silver related names and you’ll be golden. Literally.
Come on Kong, this guys is drinking apple juice! 😉
“keep building / holding on to those gold / silver related names and you’ll be golden. Literally.”
Hi Kong, perhaps I suck at jokes, but I don’t get this one. What do you mean “you’ll be golden. Literally.”? Do you mean to say holding/building gold and silver is a good or bad thing?
sorry for the “cryptic” language there…but I’m suggesting you will be “golden” in that yes buying / holding these will make you a very happy investor down the line.
Wouldn’t count any chickens as yet. After the heavy rally from start of February, it’s natural to take a breather. Look at this morning, markets have already recovered yesterday’s losses in Europe and the US markets aren’t even open and the futures are near yesterdays highs again. This is not a sign that risks markets are ready to roll over. Oil is steady, JPY is weakening and commodity currencies are up. If US$ continues to weaken, this will be good for US stocks as well as take pressure of all those emerging markets who have borrowed in US$. So all in all, it’s business as usual.
Even a 5%-10% fall won’t make a dent in the long term bull run. The same economic/political issues that have been ignored for past few years, haven’t exactly caused any major bankruptcies or defaults and until this happens and there is a knock on effect to major institutions, I do not see risk off coming off materially.
At the moment, it’s bears that are trying to pick up nickels in front of a steam roller. Why bother? When risk off does start to happen, there will be enough time to make more than enough money as the fall will likely be deep and sustained. Prices at the moment are bouncing of lows too easily. Any falls are hard whereas rises are easy – this is a sign of a bull market. Whether it’s justified or not, is immaterial, it’s happening so why fight it. As traders, it is always best to take the path of least resistance.
Then just sight tight Madness.
I’m looking at risk rolling over in a much larger capacity “this year” so….will keep taking small shots (as I can afford to ) looking to juuuuuust get that one entry that will “hit” and then allow for risk free trading in the future.
I’ve taken like…..3 small shots over the past few months and have barely lost a nickel. Now 100% in cash and looking for short USD build once again.
I see risk coming off materially in ways that people are still “yet to understand”.
I will be there for it. Count on it.
No need to sit tight, play risk on using 10% of normal lot sizes has been fruitful. As traders, why wait for something that may arise in 3-6 months time? Surely as traders, we need to be nimble enough to trade both sides? Look at Yen crosses today, why on earth would you not trade these today, even locking in 50 pips or so keeps the funds ticking over.
That statement, “risk rolling over this year” is the key. No point risk rolling over if it first goes up 10% is it? You’ve missed out on a whole 10% rise and forget the emotional turmoil that you may have gone through in the interim. Too many people have been expecting risk to roll over ever since QE in the US ended year – since then, risk has continued to power ahead.
I am with you in that risk on is the loaded trade and fundamentally, as well as technically, the bull market makes no sense and is defying all gravity but my point is are you an investor or a trader? If you are an investor, by all means start building positions and then wait. But if you are a trader, you have to have the mindset to trade both the bull and bear trades.
Great stuff Madness….but I don’t bother sitting at a computer all day looking for 50 pip moves.
Not in the slightest. I like “1000 pip moves”.
Considering the time and effort / let alone grief banging your head against a 15 minute / 30 minute / even 1 hour and 4 hour charts that hasn’t moved “meaningfully” in one direction ( 100 pips up ….200 down…..50 up ……75 down…) for months.
I don’t bother an
I trade…..but not “noise”
And 50 pips is noise. I like “1000” pips or even 500 pips better.
Consider banging your head on pairs trading with no clear advantage up or down 200 ….then back 75…then up 100…then back 50 etc for weeks on end….like the past 4 months have been more or less.
USD/JPY as an example….at thre same level as back in Nov with a couple hundred pips on either side for 4 months straight.
Who could be bothered.
For me……”less trading” is more trading. It’s a matter of deciding when to step on the pedal as opposed to “hashing it out” day after day.
I did that when I was a kid, and for the amount of money you’ve actually got at the end of a given 6 month period….you likely should have just went to the beach for 4 of it.
Haha ok cool, that’s what I guessed. When you said literally golden, I thought what… we become gold statues or something? lol.
Anyway, thanks and keep rockin’.
So then would you consider your self an investor or a trader? Sounds very much like an investor?
50*5 = 250 *4 = 1000 pips 🙂 And that’s one instrument.
Not very often one will encounter a market which will give you 1k pips, you need extremes for this. However one can say the market has continued to give 1k pips to the bulls so anyone who hasn’t caught these of late has surely missed out.
Feds Fisher just came out and said, “sees substantial correction of huge magnitude”, yet markets just made daily high on the back of it. This is the sort of market we are in.
Totally…..I was full invested in 2013 – 2014 and caught the “entire move” as JPY cratered, and then once in trend – actively traded it for months across like 15 pairs.
Missing an 8 week portion of this USD run will look like a tiny blip ( just as most trades do ) looking back over weeks and years.
You hit the ones you hit, and you miss the ones you miss. No issue there.
Key is “being there” for enough of them to make a living.
The fundamentals have inhibited me from actively trading these past few months so you just go with it. Personally…I rarely “if ever” consider the “trades I missed” as…there is always another one coming around the corner.
If you’ve hung strong thru this entire SUD run…man….no question it’s been a biggy.
I missed a couple months – no big deal for me.
Then why run a “daily” blog? Surely if you’re not interested in “noise” then updates as and when you feel something is important would be more worthwhile?
Not criticizing just I tend to look for your blogs as you are different form the MSM’s which I always appreciate. Are you not just making extra work for yourself trying to “get something out” even though as per your trading, nothing worth reporting/actioning has transpired.
The blog has been slower on the “free side” since I stopped giving free trades. The members are updated to daily / weekly ideas but even at that….I’ve had little to suggest for some time now, short of holding tight….keepiong positions low and looking for a top out in risk,
I can blog about space, food, forex, whatever as I see fit. You’ll know when I’m on the move….but I enjoy keeping the blog active regardless.
There has been very little to “blog about” forex wise for many many weeks…..but that doesn’t mean the blog needs to sink into the abyss right?
Its a blog! it should be fun, interesting, and hopefullly ( to whatever extent / degree ) worth having a look at from time to time.
I can blog about whatever I want….whenever I want, and I don’t view it as “work”.
Members area gets the details these days.
Missing your posts Kong…especially the controversial ones. You have a way with words, and I am missing them. Cheers.