Lets face it – if you are some kind of “eternal optimist” you’re gonna seriously need to re adjust your thinking in coming months. If the “kool-aid” of global central bank easing, and charts filled with wonderful green candles all sloping to the sky has become your “norm” – then get ready for a good swift kick to the face.
Seriously….you’ve got to be kidding if you honestly think this is for real – and even more so a fool, if you’ve any ideas that it’s going to continue for much longer. The stock market has long and since become a complete and total sham ( as computers make up most of the daily activity – all being that most Americans have already been robbed of their savings) and the entire thing is more or less being held up with phony money coming out of Washington.
Please correct me if I am wrong. If you actually believe the numbers posted on CNBC – you need to have your head examined.
Looking ahead, and making plans for the future is a key element – defining a successful trader. You see you’ve got profits today – so (greedily) you hang on for tomorrow, only to see you are back at zero again. You buy when the T.V suggests all things are well – and you sell when they suggest the opposite. In other words….you continue to do exactly what they say….yet wonder why you keep getting rinsed.
As far as a chart pattern goes – imagine 2013 looking more like a 5 year old sitting at the kitchen table with a set of crayons. At best we are looking at one big wonderful mess.Up one day and down the next….then up two days then down for 4. A bunch of lines / squiggles – near impossible for the untrained eye to navigate.
I continue to caution you – this is a top – not a bottom.
This is a reasonable assumption, but what disturbs me is that so many took contrarian views recently. My guess is that the grind goes on for some 10% more.
10% more sounds great to me – and a possible stretch at that.
I see it as, the point where most retail investors will soon feel they will “miss an opportunity” as wall street hands off the bag here at the top. I plan to trade it as far as I can as well – but with extreme caution, smaller position sizes and my eyes wide open. Nothing has improved and the money supply continues to balloon.
Kong, I hear you loud and clear buddy! I trimmed my equitiy investments yesterday by 50% along with all bond shares “pimco” to zero.This my retirermrent fund “mutual funds” only.I was 82% invested and pushing this run up for all I could get but the risk/reward is over in my mind.I have been making good on my international investments and would like your taken those going forward considering a pullback on US stocks.Just how much effect will it be world wide in the next 6 to 12 months?
I realize what you do with your money but this is my largest account and would like your perspective on the emerging and international equity investments with the inevitable upcoming correction/crash on the US market.I have pm’s on the side also and a small risk account for the same.
Take heed readers at Pot Stock Watch – this is a gentleman that clearly CLEARLY has his ducks in a line!
If you’ve been buying at the right time with “red candles and blood in the steet” then YOU SHOULD BE TRIMMING HERE – at the stage of “retail euphoria”. Fantastic work Ronnie Byrd – inspirational!
Being on the ground in several emerging economies over the past 10 years (Colombia in particular) I can say without question – things are really starting to crank higher. Here in Mexico as well (Costa Rica and Nicaragua too) – tourism and retail development continues to go go go, with India and the rest of Asia just getting going. I too am very interested to see what effect the next “downturn in the U.S” has – in particular on Canada!
I’d love to know more of the specifics Ronnie – perhaps we can chat / mail privately. It sounds like you’re in a fantastic position, and really have this down.
Kong, Would love to chat anytime,shoot me you email and I will tell you exactly what I am working with so you have a better idea.
It’ll be the perfect newspaper headline this weekend if the Dow manages to close above 14,000. In addition to that, we’re getting record inflows into stocks (http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/wire-news/investors-pour-record-3655-billion-into-us-stock-fundsjanuary_814306.html). Looks like the top’s just about in!
In general, how do you see 2013 ending Kong? Are you thinking a simple 10% correction here and new highs or sideways trading into year end or is this the beginning of an actual crash? Regardless of how your prediction turns out, just remember that even the brightest minds and most successful traders will likely be wrong about 2013, it’s literally a 50/50 shot on what happens this year, though I still think longer-term we may be screwed. And regardless of if you’re right or wrong about the end of 2013, I’m sure you’ll make tons of money either way just trading the events as they unfold this year.
Although typically bearish, I’m a almost swept up in the europhia myself (which I use as my own contrarian indicator! lol). Just for fun, I say Dow 12,000 by year end.
Again my apologies guys as I just can’t get too deep into anything being in transit. I get home late tomorrow and plan to get back at it here full time as usual.
2013 could very easily grind sideways with considerable volatility as central bankers continue to fight hard against the likely flow of negativity surrounding the global economy continues. This in itself is gonna be rocky at best with such strong and conflicting forces pulling and pushing hard in opposite directions.
Perhaps Dow trades in Avery wide and choppy range between these highs and 12’000 grinding the hell out of all involved with no real clear path or trend. That’s what I am preparing for.
I am going to tighten it up a little, we could very well see the first correction in the March/May timeframe, not too far off. This should be observerd as a normal correction or profit taking by the media & general participants. This will most likely be smart money leaving the sector before the masses head for the exit door. Thus we will continue to see smart-money slowly liquidate these funds further during a July/August period managing this rehearsed game plan.
At such time, I would suspect that the majority of the large hands will have safely exited the pre-parabolic move, leaving only those driven emotionally by greed while living in the euphoric hypnotic state.
At this intersecting point of time we should have by now reached mid to late fall of 2013 and an exhausted, overly funded equities markets literally held up by the puppet masters & of course the average retail inventor.
The final act to this perpetual pump & dump Ponzi Scheme, ultimately has the retail investor riding the final waves to slaughter house.
Thus the repeated actions & approaches, baffling all as a different outcome is expected.
And so the insanity continues….
I hope that with Kong’s guidance we can trade the short and medium term trends in the identified forthcoming dangerous market conditions profitably.
Thanks rolo. I will continue to work my short term strategies here coupled with those longer term fundamentals with plans to catch the turns as they present themselves.
So far this week…I see I’ve missed some reasonable further move in Jpy crosses but can’t complain as I’ve been travelling and not able to focus on my work. Back at it here tomorrow.
Hey Kong, what’s your take on Deniis Hartman’s prediction that the yen goes to 150?
Bob I hope u got my email response…as I learn the ropes on this new iPad.
Otherwise…..this guy seems like a media snake to me…as I only see him pop up on occasion right around the time markets are set to turn. If I’m not mistaken he is usually suggesting to do the opposite of what I’d be doing at the time…but has it right on this fundamentally.
The level 150 – I can’t really comment on…but I will be looking long usd/jpy all year….so…..bring it on Dennis!
He is Alive….. How was Van…. good to visit homeland?
I meant Dennis Gartman.