Call me crazy, as I’ve not really had much to say “forex wise” over the past few weeks but….we’ve finally got a couple trades shaping up!
I know, I know…its been a long and painful March for anyone not watching their money management like a hawk, as many currencies have done all but what you would have expected. But again….I fell the “shake out” has about run its course.
You’d have to be looking at GBP/AUD as bottoming out here at 1.79 / 1.80 along side all AUD pairs finally exhausting “whatever buying interest” there’s been over the past few weeks.
As “100% backwards” as it may have appeared with all the tough news coming out of China and potential war stirring in The Ukraine, the near term fundamentals in Australia pulled a “temporary trump card” with both AUD as well NZD continuing to push higher.
With some of our favorite candle formations now taking the stage ( hammers and shooting stars ) I’ve got trades setting up “for you” in several currency pairs. ( I’ve been in / adding to these the entire month )
- Long GBP/AUD “above” current price action ( say 50 pips ) and let price come to you.
- Short AUD/USD “under” current price action ( say 50 pips ) and let price come to you.
- Short AUD/JPY “under” current price action ( say even 80 pips ) and let price come to you.
Otherwise it looks to me that the US Dollar is “again” rolling over here, and as we’ve seen most often over the past few months…she falls “along side” risk so…..AUD down, NZD down as well USD down with JPY up, as well EUR and GBP up – as flat out wacky as that may appear to some of you.
Get it on your screen, watch the pairs into next week and see if this doesn’t set up for a trade with some legs.
Its funny. I generally stayed away from USD dollar trades over the last while because I just thought it was going to be too weird. So I take USDCAD awhile back at 1.0985. Do a great job of riding all the way to 1.112750……..decide to hold because I think risk aversion will shoot it higher……end up riding it all the way back in disbelief down to 1.10…..DUMBEST trade of the year for me. Generally I am good about taking profits. So lesson learned. Don’t get greedy!
Ya it’s a tough pair these days, and you are right about sitting out USD in general.
What can I say…..I’ve done jack shit in nearly 2 full months so…..you are not alone!
How long more the aud/jpy will up? Our short is underwater now. Sob…sob…
I have not traded for the past two weeks, cause the topping process is meant to take all of our money. However I would have to agree that finally we have hit some major resistance on AUD/USD. I’m holding off entering an trades until monday afternoon/night. However I’m liking short aud/USD, long GBP/aud, and short aud/jpy just like you. I’m thinking yen crosses in general next week are gonna be good long yen! Congrats on getting married Kong, can we expect any Konglings? ☺☺
Nothing falls from the lows as you said several weeks ago. That is our mantra now, go a bit higher so we can short this fundamental turd.
No Konglings no……or at least not in the forseeable future as I ( and my wife ) still have a considerable amount of running around to do.
It will be one step at a time here on the marriage / planning front! My god! I’m married holy shit!
He he he….thus far nothing but great times, and the wedding / Mayan ceremony here with family and friends was spectacular.
AUD has not gotten my goat as “this is silly” and about as overbought as I’ve seen in many , many months.
Hang in there Careydina! I’m going to make this trade pay!
Yeah waited it for a month already. Don’t mind to continue waiting…
We’re very close now so….if you’ve hung on this long – woohooo!!
Hey Kong. I was just wondering if you could elaborate on what you meant with your post a few days ago titled “When Markets don’t have a clue…” I chimed in as you recall and have read it on one of the posts above, that in these last two months the choppiness is what the market is “supposed to do.”
I see you Kong, as a savy investor, identified the messiness that was about to ensue and consequently remained “flat” for 2 months (really good for you man, well done). For others who are relatively new, well we weren’t so lucky. Take me for example..
I have had few entries put on over the last two months (far lower trading entries for me than normal) and some have been profitable, but for the most part I have been in the negative. I found that the lack of entries consequently made me want to “force the market”, that is put on trades that weren’t necessarily ideal to my system…adding more losing trades than should have been…etc..
And until your post a few days ago, I was going mental figuring out what in the hell was going on. Obviously my risk was tight, and I am still in the game, but the market these last two months have reeked havoc on my psyche. Could you explain why markets are supposed to “shake” and how you were able to identify choppiness was ahead…
Again Rob……fantastic line of question ( worth at least a full post er two on my part ) so…..I’ll do just that over the weekend, now that the family / friends and “post” wedding celebration is offically OVER!
In all Rob….I could / would glady write far more about the “mental aspects of trading” than I would of the daily commentary / numbers and levels but for risk of sounding like an absolute quack – temper my interests.
You consistantly touch on aspects of trading that in my view “define” ones ability to do this, suggesting that you yourself perhaps…are one of the few capable.
I’m back in biz here as of today so….let me geta cold beer and a couple tequilla, and hammer this out for you over the weekend.
Awesome man that would me much much appreciated. Look forward to reading what you have to say. Take care and I’ll chime in once I read what you are going to say. For now then, cheers and have a good weekend.
Ya the AUD laundry team washed a lot of shorts over the last few sessions. I know bad joke. Oh well. Looks like the turning point is very near. USDCAD caught long time uptrend so I might as well stay in and hopefully get to a new high. Never had a forex trade turn into an investment but damn this is close. Have a great weekend Kong and all!
from a technical perspective aud/cad showed a nice pin bar a few days ago and today we have aud/usd and aud/chf following suit. Should be an interesting week ahead.
Trimmed 25% of long Aud/Usd today – daily fire still running the squeeze MM here. However showing first signs of losing that MM… will look again Sunday/Monday…. to unload or continue to see this play out next week. I do however think we hold the 200-day for a while…. test & then bounce is what I am looking for…. as much as it does not add up here it does not have too…. nothing really is anymore. The trade works until it doesn’t – trimmed Copper as well…. I suspect April will surprise & deliver the unexpected across the board.
I’ve cut my long audjpy. And now are all short position now. Waiting for next week. Do you think it will up more?
I recall you had taken some positions in gold miners. Have you dumped them?
A while back you inquired as to what readers wanted more insight in to and it was the gold / silver /miners space.
What say you, Senor?
Holding into mid week “next week” with a very good chance of selling “back” into strength and looking for entry “yet again” lower.
There is no point trying to be a hero here, as not a human being on Earth would likely have expected the massive “rinse job” in the PM’s these past few days.
The swing low in GDX looks good, as even here the postions are a hair in profit so……we’ll look at the bounce and evaluate from there.
From a fundamental perspective – Fed has no chance in hell of raising rates on their own free will, and I’m still of the mindset that QE will “yet again” be re instated.
Will they let go of the continued “smackdown” in the papermarket masking the true devaluation of the dollar?
I think not.