Let’s say you’re a cow farmer with your “bread and butter business” relying on how fat/large your cows can get – then the appropriate time to slaughter/sell in order to maximize your profits.
Over time you feed your cows what they need, you even massage them ( in the case of Kobi beef ) you take care of their overall well-being, you protect them from predators and do for the most part – whatever you can to foster “maximum growth”.
The cows appear content, and everything is looking good as your herd has fatten up quite nicely over the past 5 years but finally…………….the time has come.
You’ve caught wind of large storms brewing the east, you’ve had a few renovation costs on the farm, feed costs are set to rise and you’ve done everything you can – given this extended period of good fortune to “fatten the heard”.
Round up ensues.
After some time, you’ve got most of them in the corral but….for those few last stragglers you’ve set out something special……something “gaurenteed” to get them in, and get them in quickly.
The cows just can’t resist, and before long your corral is literally “packed”, you can’t take a single cow more, the storm is clearly seen on the horizon, and the machines running on the “inside of the factory” are primed. Blades sharpened, belts tightened, grinders set.
You’ve timed it perfectly.
You are a master of your craft, a master of deception as the herd of “happy cows” come “willingly down the chute”, bowing their heads to come underneath the structures above, and aligning their heads “absolutely perfectly in line” with what we’ll just call……..the final surprise.
The herd has served you well, as you knew this would be the case…….. but that’s not quite enough for you no……..
It’s those calfs out in the field you’ve got your eyes on now.
Have you got a screw loose Kong? ?
Are you a cow or a farmer then?
Ooops….silly question as..
Cows can’t answer questions.
Like my Daddy used to say…”If they’re old enough to bleed, they’re old enough to butcher”.
Also, there was…”You lead ’em into the barn and I’ll skin ’em”.
But the corral is full. We dont need the calf’s. We’ll get em next time.
Let the butchering begin.
You said it right and true.
When the time is right I will be shorter than a Munchkin (Wiz of Oz) in a wagon rut.
AUD broker through , 93 ,, didn’t see that coming ,, anyways was looking at the charts and saw sma on weekly and last time it touched it when it got to 97 area and this time its around 95 something so any idea that it can go to that area ,,
and kong account was low so had to hedge any area you suggest to get out of this buy position from where no freaking way it can go up ?
AU broke the new high. USD/JPY down but AUD/JPY up due to AUD too strong refuse to go down further.
I can’t explain it you guys……I’ve never in my life seen “risk” come off so quickly and strongly “without” taking both AUD as well NZD with it.
This is all very strange as YEN strength seen as suggested, with Nikkei now down yet “another” -285 points as suggested….”risk off”as suggested with “risk related” currencies haanging right in there – incredible.
Ya. Aussie strength is never end. I expected AUDJPY suppose come down at peast 200 pips but now not even break below 95. OMG
Consider this Carey….
We are now at a level ( 95.0 ) that we last saw back at the high in Oct 2013.
Back then we had full blown U.S QE as well full blown Japanese QE pumping, and almost no negative factors / news / fundamentals right?
Things where “rocking”.
So…..here we are “today” at the same level with what??
– Tapered QE out of U.S
– NO NEW STIMULUS out of Japan
– Very significant geo political problems with Russia / Ukraine
– Confirmed “slowing” in China as well NO NEW STIMULUS
Do you see what I am getting at?
Even when “everything was going perfectly” Aud/JPY stalled at 95……
So now here we are when “all things look much worse” as U.S earnings are going to SUCK too!
It’s this kind of thinking that has me feel such confidence in the trade as……..it would take a MIRACLE to push much past this in my view.
AUDJPY will down to 94 or below for sure. Might takes another 1 or 2 weeks more.
i’ll have some filets, a few ribeyes, a bunch of new york strips, and some prime rib
Do you think a new set of correlations emerging maybe Kong? People’s definition of what is safe maybe changing. It’s a crazy world.
I trade with the trend and the masses/herd I’m afraid so it’s a Moo from me.
That’s a very good point / line of question as you’ve got it – the world is certainly changing – wow.
The strength of both NZD as well AUD would certainly be suggestive of that in that NZD has “already raised interest rates” with an economy that is most certainly on the right track. Canada too for the most part……right on track, with resources galore etc…
I would “almost” say yes….if it where not for those “age old trades” still so deeply rooted in the banking system ie – The Carry Trade.
Unwind of such trades will always see the typical movement of risk currencies being sold…..and safe havens / low yielders taking flows.
I think what’s happening here at the moment is …….the big boys still have “one more push” to the upside before they really feel it’s time to head for the exits so……they are “literally” hanging on til the last second.
The “barage” of long dark red candles that will “at some point” come to be – will be something to see indeed.
Perhaps – “not quite yet”.
Moo moo….I’m a cow too, as trading with the trend is the way to go……but booking your profits “before the trend changes” takes a bit of practice.