Swing High In U.S.D – Significant Move Ahead

Today marks a fairly significant day in the life of Kong as yet another milestone is passed…..another goal achieved.

Stars have aligned, cosmic events have fallen into place and years worth of work and dedication have finally paid off.

It’s time to make “a significant trade”.

The U.S Dollar has juuuust barely swung high as of this morning, and I am placing what may very well be the most significant trade of the year.

I am getting short The U.S Dollar for what I expect to be a “large-scale move” to the downside.

There are a million different reasons to justify such a trade, but I’m sure you already know. Yes the global economy is in shambles, yes the American election is set to be the most embarrassing political event in history, yes the crisis in Syria continues, and yes I am still 1000% completely convinced that further QE is in the cards for America.

This turn looks ugly. I’ve been staring at charts for weeks, and I see the same thing reflected “everywhere”.

Watch from the sidelines, or just buckle up for the ride.

Sideways soon turning to downside.

13 Responses

  1. nthorsvig March 29, 2016 / 9:11 am

    What did you short the USD against?

    On Tue, Mar 29, 2016 at 6:55 AM, Forex Trading with Kong wrote:

    > Pot Stock Watch posted: “Today marks a fairly significant day in the life of > Kong as yet another milestone is passed…..another goal achieved. Stars > have aligned, cosmic events have fallen into place and years worth of work > and dedication have finally paid off. It’s time t” >

    • Pot Stock Watch March 29, 2016 / 9:15 am

      Get long GBP as well EUR vs USD as well get short USD/JPY to start. JPY pairs such as AUD/JPY will fall significantly as well.

  2. Leo March 29, 2016 / 9:25 am

    so what comes 1st with AUDJPY, 90 or 80?

  3. rr March 29, 2016 / 3:04 pm

    How about s&p kong? If u r convinced that more qe is coming, so usd down = sp up?

    • Pot Stock Watch March 29, 2016 / 5:58 pm

      SP down…….the complete and total loss of faith in Central Banking and the system in general to follow. No one with half a brain will be buying the next round of QE in my view.

      • rr March 30, 2016 / 3:07 am

        funny how every asset that used to indicate risk off is now going the opp way, gold up, jpy up, usd down, bonds.. equities are now just following oil up and down..

  4. Madness March 29, 2016 / 3:31 pm

    HI Kong,

    Are you still looking to short US stocks, the S&P at this level?

    If QE is coming, with FED gutless to raise rates, do you see a potential for all time highs or is this where risk comes off? The very dovish comments from Yellen today were stock positive yet the move in JPY should indicate risk off. Are we seeing a decoupling of JOY vs Risk or do you expect this relationship to re-establish itself?

    US stock indices are up nearly 14% in six weeks with no signs of abating.

    • Pot Stock Watch March 29, 2016 / 6:01 pm

      Short the entire thing…..this is last gasp/second chance in my view.

      This is the “lower high” that will result in significant downside action in global appetite for risk.

  5. David March 29, 2016 / 4:45 pm

    Hey Kong,

    Don’t you think long GBP is dangerous until After the UK referendum?

    Seasonally, GBP is weak in May, which will coincide perfectly with the UK referendum in June. GBP typically starts to strengthen again over the summer, which in my opinion will be the Perfect time to get in. With that said, April can go either way and GBP movements will be based on overall USD strength/weakness (unless the market wants to punish/reward the GBP over one of the Brexit Polls that come out).

    As far as USD/CAD goes, Oil usually has a great month in March (meaning USD/CAD down), which it did; though, this cross is starting to decouple from the movement of oil. Being near 1.30 again seems like a better place to get long than short IMO and I see mid 1.30’s a good place to short.

    Copper’s been on a tear, along with AUD, which I think will fall shortly.

    Outside of USD/JPY, I don’t see a lot of dollar weakness. Yellen’s comments IMO provided a nice bout of USD weakness and a good area to get long USD, adding slowly until Friday’s close/Sunday’s open.

    • Pot Stock Watch March 29, 2016 / 6:05 pm

      NO one cares what Yellen says anymore as global concerns trump any kind of “easing”.

      Easing used to be an indication that the Central Banks had your back ( when trading ) where as now….easing will suggest the entire thing is a complete and total sham.

      It’s the “psychology” of trading that changes here….and you need to be one that has the ability to recognize.

      The easing hasn’t helped a bit…….and further easing from here suggests complete and total loss of control.

      • Madness March 30, 2016 / 3:15 am

        Tough one Kong.

        Clearly the markets do care what Yellen says. Just look at the S&P and US treasuries since Yellen has played down four rate cuts this year to only two.

        Unfortunately the issue (according to the various sites) is that the major players are not buying in to these huge risk on rallies however therein lies the problem. Even with no major buyers, the S&P has managed almost a 15% gain in less than 50 trading days. If volume continues to deteriorate, markets will just drift higher. Any good news will be brought, any bad news will be ignored as it’s an excuse to not raise rates.

        Despite oil glut, it has managed to rise over 50% from it’s lows a month or so ago which is also adding to the sense of relief for risk assets.

        I honestly believe there is covert co-ordination between FED/ECB/BOJ to keep financial asset prices rising. We could be in for a long, boring, melt up until something major hits the fan.

        All the FED has to do is keep mentioning negative rates and QE and the markets will be too scared to sell off.

        I do believe markets are broken and the chase for yield is causing a dash for trash.. How can German 10yr rates be near zero? This isn’t a sign of policy success, this is a sign of policy failure. In 10 years time, German economy is still expected to warrant near 0%?

        US 10year treasuries are indicating recession yet stocks are rallying as they don’t care about company fundamentals like earning or the fact more and more are simply borrowing to buy back their own stocks. All they care about is QE and free money.

        As long as the Fed has room to cut rates and re-start QE, psychology will ensure there is no major sell off.

        There is absolutely no fear in the system as everyone believes the Central Banks have potential to do more. What is really needed is a shock like major bankruptcies or defaults which will re-price risks.

        Sorry for the long rant – just laying out issues as I see them.

  6. frenchdna March 30, 2016 / 4:32 am

    I don’t swing/position trade like you but i certainly wanted to go long EURUSD and GBPUSD yesterday. I was trying to be too precise and fiddled with the trade, which cost me money – twice – despite having a beautiful plan. The joy of trading…

    I don’t plan for more than a day or two but i wouldn’t be surprised if EURUSD took the daily swing high today, then consolidates on thursday (or if it doesn’t take the high it consolidates just below) and they will blow whoever is left on NFP.

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