I saw fundamental changes / shifts in the market that tipped me off, as well factored in a number of other “broad stroke” indicators – suggesting that markets might stall / move sideways / remain “trendless”.
1. The economic cycle “in general” has become about as stretched as it can stretch (now pushing on to be one of the longest economic cycles in the history of markets!). This has solely been “fueled” by funny money out of Washington.
The Economic Cycle – A Simple Explanation
2. Earnings ( and even more importantly ) “guidance” has been pretty much flat / bad to even “horrible” as U.S companies have done everything they can to show profit, when in reality it’s really about cost cutting / down sizing etc…..( your bottom line might look a bit better too after cutting 300 workers etc….this doesn’t mean “more profits/growth”.
Caterpillar Earnings – What It Means To Me
3. Emerging Markets continue to but up against resistance, and even worse – in the face of a rising dollar ( as suggested via tapering, and now “higher rates” ) will likely “collapse” as they’ve grown so used to the flow of “funny money” coming out of Washington.
4. Proposed reforms in China.
Reflections On China – Where To Next?
Gees…..and the list goes on, with continued unemployment in the U.S, housing going nowhere, Obamacare ( my god ) and continued tensions in the Middle East etc…
All of this most certainly contributed to my “extended holiday” through February and March as these factors ( and many others ) fly in direct opposition to the current mandate from the Fed.
Keep the masses calm. There is no problem. Everything is going as planned. Buy stocks. Go to sleep.
You can’t trade in these types of cross winds. You will be ground to pieces with such conflicting forces pushing and pulling on markets.
Looks like “part 3” will finally get to the “psychology” of it all….and how a trader can maintain an ounce of sanity through all of this.
For starters……tequilla doesn’t hurt a bit!