The Top Is In – In Japan That Is

It’s been interesting to see how currencies have been doing very little, all the while The Nikkei as well SP 500 – continue to weaken.

We’ve now got a “weekly swing high” in Nikkei ( where this weeks “low” takes out the low of the previous week ) which is ( in general ) a pretty solid suggestion of future direction, although still no “reversal” in Yen.

The top in Japanese stocks looks to be “confimed”.

It’s interesting to note “the degree” of selling in risk, and it’s effect on any individual currency as with the example of Nikkei and Yen….it appears we “really need to see some selling” to get that  Yen up off it’s bottom ( jumping a little bit this morning ).

USD continues to push at it’s near term highs…high’s that are “far higher” than they should be at this point as the USD / EUR / GOLD / COMMOD cycles are all ( as they are all so connected ) completely stretched “past” stretched.

I’m holding short USD on first round of entries – currently only a couple pips in the red.

Volatility ( all the way around ) is DEFINATELY picking up, and it would be my thinking that the degree of selling we are seeing “increases” – considering that most of the Major Indexes are again in the red / weak.

A turn in USD has to factor into all of this here soon, and Yen so close to finding it’s low.

You don’t want to be on the wrong side of a rising Yen.

7 Responses

  1. David October 1, 2014 / 10:52 am

    The USD/JPY broke (very briefly 110), I remember one of the members saying this thing could touch 110, absolutely amazing, I hope some people made some good money on it. Initiating short positions now, next level to add shorts are 110.65 and up to 1.12 if we continue to break out. Friday will put in a big move off of US Job reports.

    • Pot Stock Watch October 1, 2014 / 11:44 am

      Looks good to me as I entered a couple days ago.

      Today’s action is certainly promising.

  2. Dennis October 1, 2014 / 11:09 am

    In your July 23rd post “A Question For Fellow Forex Traders” I suggested deep pockets were accumulating USD/JPY just above 101.

    You said you were on the other side of that trade then, but are only a few pips in the red now. USD/JPY closed at 109.59 yesterday.

    Had you reversed your position since July?

    • Pot Stock Watch October 1, 2014 / 11:48 am

      I’ve been in and out one time for a small loss when I also cashed in my long standing short AUD/USD trade.

      At times what I will do is….take the cumulative profits in any number of open trades / pairs, and “clear house” taking profits as a whole, not concerned with each individual trade.

      The large winners, and always….the small losers.

  3. Anonymous October 1, 2014 / 3:56 pm

    Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

    • Dennis October 2, 2014 / 1:27 pm

      LOL, Anonymous – but WORTHLESS if you don’t know when.

  4. guy October 1, 2014 / 4:43 pm

    What I’m interested in is first an audited track record going back at least 24 months. Second defined entries with stops called out live and in real time.

    I could care less about what you do to each his own. However from first hand experience I advise aspiring traders out there to do your own research and go through the long process individually or with a “Proven” mentor. The way each of us develops as traders is different. It is important to learn from other people in the business but the style you eventually develop be it intra-day, swing, position will have to be something that fits your strengths, weaknesses and temperament.

    We all have to remember that the drivers in the market that determine price are different from what the ‘analyst’ say they should be in a lot of cases. Great analyst can be lousy traders. It’s like someone missing a great run in the US dollar and certain indices while they constantly call the top. When the top comes great we can make money in that too, but as traders we should remain flexible and able to play both sides of the trend and the markets themes at the moment in order to maximize gains.

    Just my thoughts

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