forex market analysis

Don’t Panic – There Is Time To Prepare

Pot Stock Watch 23 Comments

These things take time so…let’s just take a minute and re group.

The entire blog / financial community at large is pretty much sitting at a stand still, with a couple of “ridiculous” factors and circumstances in play. Get a load of this….March 15th is not only the DAY the debt ceiling “freeze” does exactly that – but ALSO the day the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates?? Can you wrap your head around that? Can you?

The dichotomy here is unprecedented. I see the debt ceiling biz being completely and totally “blacked out” in the main stream media, as it could very likely lead to government shutdown, as well as some pretty “snappy headlines out there” when the world at large is again reminded….The United States is again 100% flat broke.

I would assume “the powers that be” will keep things lofty moving into the 15th, then regardless of an interest rate hike or not….you’d have to expect our “long-awaited sell off / correction” to start, which will likely take us well past May ( as I also feel that SELL IN MAY will be in effect this year ).

In a broad sense I’d be looking to put some protection in place…start raising cash for a much better time and place to “jump back in”.

There is very likely one more  push higher later this year ( and it could very well be a whopper ) so maybe July/Aug would be a great time to grab that cash…..and put it back to use moving into the fall.

EUR longs looking good. NUGT pissing me off.

Forex_Kong

              Forex_Kong

Dow Jones – Over 2000 Points Above 200 SMA

Pot Stock Watch 18 Comments

I can’t bear to watch.

See the green area on RSI – How long it’s been overbought? See the distance DOWN to the red line ( 200 Moving Average ) See the “rolling hills” of the MACD ( useless indicator anyway ) as price on the chart is so much higher…yet the near term “rolling hill” so much lower than the previous. Divergence baby – Huge divergence.

Even a correction down to the 50 MA will wipe any and all profits that anyone “envisions” prior to actually realizing them – and pushing the sell button.

This is the blow off top. How long she goes? Who cares! Just be sure to get out alive.

 

Dow Jones – 2000 Over 200 SMA

Bitcoin Now – Same Price As 1 Oz. Gold

Pot Stock Watch 8 Comments

Anyone else find this absolutely amazing / hard to even comprehend?

From some article:

“” The Digital currency bitcoin jumped to a record high above $1,200 last Friday, as investors speculated the first bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) to be issued in the United States is set to receive regulatory approval.

Traditional financial players have largely shunned the web-based “crytpocurrency,” viewing it as too volatile, complicated and risky, and doubting its inherent value.

 But bitcoin, invented in 2008, performed better than any other currency in every year since 2010 apart from 2014, when it was the worst-performing currency, and has added almost a quarter to its value so far this year. “”
Bitcoin Now As Valuable As Gold

Bitcoin Now As Valuable As Gold

Another indication of just how stretched / ridiculous things have gotten when a digital crypto-currencies “perceived value” has matched / surpassed the price of gold.
You don’t think this thing is just a tad over extended? 

Trading With Bazookas – Pea Shooters Get Smashed

Pot Stock Watch 16 Comments

So it all comes down to Trump’s speech tonight….as market participant stand like fat deer in the headlights..

Gold still the same. EUR/USD up nicely but still more or less the same, and the beast of all beasts NUGT takes the world for a diving lesson. Boom…talk about a stop run. These things don’t happen unless the big boys are making their moves. They can push price a couple bucks in a couple of hours without batting an eye….all the while your piddly 200 shares with a .50 cent stop get’s gobbled up. Multiply that by a couple 100,000 ( or million ) and you start to better understand just how difficult it is to “trade” with a “pea shooter”…when those on the other side of your trade carry billion dollar bazookas.

Forex_Kong_Bazooka

          Forex_Kong_Bazooka

You really don’t have much of a chance.

I find it incredibly ironic that the Trumpster is calling for some 54 billion more spending on Defence, and 1 Trillion on infrastructure when the country is already 100% flat busted / broke / bankrupt. As suggested by a few of the brightest minds in the comment section here at Kong –  sounds like the ol debt ceiling with just get raised, then raised again…then again. Where does the money come from?

Sounds like more money printing to me..but I thought the economy is expanding and there is now talk of the rate hike cycle beginning? Not.

QE will happen in ‘Merica again.

The printing presses can never stop printing.

Sell Your Stocks – The Holiday Is Over

Pot Stock Watch 21 Comments

I used to go  on and on about it, but with The Fed printing confetti each and everyday for the past 8 years – it didn’t really matter. The United States is 100% totally broke / Greece style / Flat out busted.

You guys remember that thing called “the debt ceiling”? Well……March 15th – Here we go again…only this time it’s different.

March 15th is the day that the “debt ceiling holiday” that Obama and Boehner put together right before the last election in October of 2015 expires.

The debt ceiling will freeze in at $20 trillion.  It will then be law.  It will be a hard stop.  The Treasury will have roughly $200 billion in cash. The U.S is burning cash at a $75 billion a month rate.

By summer, they will be out of cash. Totally out of cash.

The holiday is over.

You think I’m joking about this….you don’t take this seriously, and you bury your head in the sand –  I won’t be very happy.

Gold up = Fear = USD and U.S Stocks down HARD.

http://www.usdebtclock.org

 

 

What Does Trump Want? – USD Strong Or Weak

Pot Stock Watch 4 Comments

Let’s ask ourselves a few very simple questions. On a fundamental level…

What do you think would benefit the Trump presidency / program more? A strong U.S Dollar or a weak U.S Dollar? And why? ______________ (comment please).

Next…..

Would you say that the world at large currently views the Trump train as a stable and positive contributor to international trade and global economic development…or as a negative? ___________ (comment please).

Finally….

In the advent of some “international conflict” involving The U.S, Russia, China, Japan and/or any country in Europe would you expect this to be a positive or a negative for USD? ___________ (comment please).

What do you think the probability is of further escalation of conflict between The U.S , Russia , China , Japan , Korea , ISIS etc? _____________ (comment please).

Throwing around a bit of  “geo political analysis” is always great, as it can help provide a viewpoint that isn’t centered on one’s own “local situation” not to mention a break from the math and charts.

Remember…fear and greed are what moves human beings to do the crazy things they do so…. keep this in mind while formulating your answers.

EUR Looking To Fly Hgher

 

 

 

 

Buy EUR/USD – Before Tuesday Afternoon

Pot Stock Watch 4 Comments

You’re going to want to buy EUR before Tuesday.

This trade fits into the exact same framework we have been working with…with respect to The U.S Dollar taking a very large nose dive –  very, very soon. You can see in the chart below that EUR/USD has now put in an absolutely “classic swing low” right at the 50 day moving average…after completing only the first daily cycle of this new “intermediate cycle”. This suggests that we’ve got several more daily cycles to go ( lasting somewhere between 30-35 days each) before this upswing completes.

I would imagine the 200 day moving average ( marked in red ) should be the next target. That’s some 350 – 400 pips!

Buy EUR Before Tues Afternoon

These correlations with The Euro, USD and Gold are batting near 100% right now….as you can’t have The Euro rise without USD moving decidedly lower. The same thing goes for Gold, and if you really want to nail this…feel free to get long The Japanese Yen ( JPY ) as well. Yen chart looks exactly the same as EURO.

So…only one more asset class to consider here right? U.S Equities.

I can’t stand the stock market right now, as it’s continued rise goes against just about every fundamental principle I can drum up. There are too many indicators and factors to list – all suggesting this thing tops out  soon…or at the very least – makes a serious correction. The stock market is cyclical and there is not a single thing “any acting president” can do to change that.

Trump has certainly “empowered the common man” with the talk of bringing jobs back, and I can certainly appreciate that but…..it won’t last. Unfortunately for stock buyers – foreign exchange leads the way and the message is painfully clear.

This thing needs a complete and total reset before some incredible turn around in the U.S economy will be realized.

Wash rinse repeat people. You know this. Has it ever been any different?

Never Buy In The Morning – Afternoon Is Best

Pot Stock Watch 8 Comments

You don’t EVER buy pre-market…and I rarely buy anything in the morning.Period.

This is when Wall St. “sells to you”……where as in the afternoon….Wall St. “buys for themselves”.

 

Mornings_Are_For_Selling

Mornings_Are_For_Selling

You should file this away as another great tip / something to incorporate into your trading….as a mis-timed entries tend to keep you up at night.

And we all need our sleep right?

Resist the temptation to buy in the mornings….this will help a lot.

 

USD Update – Failed Daily Cycle

Pot Stock Watch 13 Comments

The U.S Dollar has now breached the low from the previous daily cycle….confirming that this “next cycle” will also manifest as a “left translated cycle” and take the dollar decidedly lower.

But first we bounce.

We bounce higher in a confirmed downtrend so…you don’t go buying this dip in USD bonehead. You wait 4-6 days ( 6 at most I imagine ) and “sell the rip” as we are in a downtrend. Patience is everything when trading, as you’ve got to fight that “urge” to get in there…and be involved every minute of the day.

I can honestly say that these days ( having long since been through the emotional torment experienced when learning ) I spent more like 85% of my time plotting / scheming / observing markets than I do “actually trading”.

Magically…..the less I trade – the more money I make…but don’t confuse this with “investing”. Yes I believe that gold and silver have bottomed, the Euro will rise and USD will fall…JPY will surge and U.S equities will soon take a substantial hit so….

Investing is 100% totally / absolutely / without question OUT!  I trade…..and I trade assets I believe to be in longer term trends. I don’t consider it investing.

Most of the standard correlations are looking pretty good right now ie…USD down has The Euro and commodities ( priced in USD ) moving higher…and The Japanese Yen flying cuz money borrowed some years ago is now repatriating to the place of its origin. Yen up = U.S equities down.

The fact that this thing has traded sideways for this long must have many of you looking at your portfolios and wondering – why haven’t I done so well this past year?

How much “higher” can you really expect anything to climb in the face of a dramatically waning “appetite for risk”.

The planet is completely freaked out about Trump. Good or bad….I have no opinion, but I can tell you this….markets hate uncertainty, and the future looks “more than uncertain” to say the least.

Wouldn’t you agree?